The Toronto Maple Leafs made some moves this offseason that deserve credit, but the bigger picture is hard to miss: they did not come out of the summer stronger.
There were bright spots. Drafting Gavin McKenna, bringing in Nick Paul, and adding Darren Raddysh as their new number one defender all look like smart decisions on paper.
Those are real positives. But once you get past them, the rest of the offseason starts to look like a step backward.
The clearest example is in goal. Signing Sergei Bobrovsky to a three-year deal worth $7 million annually was a risky bet on a 37-year-old, and last season’s numbers don’t make that gamble look any better.
With the Panthers, Bobrovsky finished with a 3.07 goals-against-average and a .877 save percentage. Those numbers only tell part of the story, though, and goals-saved-above-expected paints an even rougher picture.
Bobrovsky finished at -12.2 GSAX last season, which ranked ninth-worst in the NHL according to MoneyPuck.
Toronto also moved on from Dennis Hildeby, who posted a 10.5 GSAX. The trade did bring Paul back, but it left the goaltending situation weaker.
Anthony Stolarz, who is set to back up Bobrovsky heading into the 2026-27 season, posted a -6.7 GSAX. That’s not the kind of safety net a team wants after making a major change in net.
Bobrovsky’s decline has been building for a while. He posted a +15.6 GSAX in 2023-24 and a +7.2 GSAX in 2024-25 before things fell apart last season, when the Panthers were dealing with injury issues.
A strong Florida team helped cover for him. Toronto does not have that same defensive depth, which makes this move look even shakier.
The coaching change is just as hard to justify. Jim Hiller was brought in as the new head coach, and that decision drew strong criticism.
There is an argument for him as an assistant, but not as the guy running the bench. During his time with the Los Angeles Kings, who lost to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the 2025 postseason, Hiller made a series of questionable calls.
He leaned into a defensive shutdown style early in games, and when that approach didn’t work against Edmonton, he didn’t have the answers. He also chose to play Adrian Kempe on defense instead of trusting his actual blue-liners. The Oilers were able to adjust, work their way back into the series, and eventually win it.
His record last season was also poor. The Kings won 24 of 59 games under Hiller before he was fired.
For a Maple Leafs team that needs more offense, the fit looks especially odd. Jay Woodcroft made a lot more sense and looked like the better option, but Toronto went with Hiller, a coach who wants to slow things down and win with structure.
The forward depth doesn’t inspire much confidence either. Paul was a solid pickup, but the rest of the bottom-six additions raise questions.
Trading Nick Robertson was a mistake, and filling out the group with Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons, Teddy Blueger, and Brandon Duhaime feels like a major miss. Roslovic is inconsistent, Sissons was overpaid, and Blueger and Duhaime are useful pieces, but none of them bring reliable scoring over the course of a season.
Toronto’s top six is still solid, but Easton Cowan remains a big question mark after struggling to find offensive consistency. He is still projected for a second-line role this season, which only makes the lack of depth behind the top group more alarming.
Put it all together, and the offseason looks like a downgrade. The Maple Leafs improved in a few spots, but they also weakened themselves in goal, behind the bench, and in their forward depth. That’s not the profile of a team that should be viewed as a postseason lock or a division favorite.
It wouldn’t even be shocking if they end up in the mix for the first overall pick in the 2027 NHL Entry Draft.
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