The Los Angeles Kings’ offensive problems last season were bigger than one bad stretch or one cold line. They sat near the bottom of the NHL in goals per game and power-play percentage, and some of their most useful forwards also ran into miserable finishing luck along the way.
That’s where goals above expected tells the story. The stat measures the gap between what a player actually scored and what he should have scored based on the chances he created.
A negative number can point to poor finishing, bad shooting luck, or both. For the Kings, it helped spotlight the players who generated looks without seeing the results follow.
Alex Turcotte was one of the clearest examples. The center has carved out a real role for himself as a dependable two-way bottom-six forward, showing more reliability away from the puck and more progress in transition. But his offensive ceiling never really got the chance to breathe because he spent most of the season in a fourth-line spot and didn’t get many chances on either of the Kings’ top two power-play units.
Even with that limited usage, Turcotte still stood out in a strange way. He ranked second among Kings forwards in both individual scoring chances and individual high-danger scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. And yet the production just didn’t show up the way the chances suggested it should have.
In 62 games, Turcotte scored three goals and finished with 14 points. The bigger issue was the gap between opportunity and output. He led the Kings in goals expected per 60 minutes at 1.08, was expected to score double-digit goals, and still finished at -9.1 goals above expected.
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Adrian Kempe keeps making that answer tougher to delay. His importance on the ice and his standing in the room have pushed him into the forefront of the discussion, and the fact that he is locked in for the long haul only strengthens the case. Drew Doughty remains part of the conversation as well, but the differing contract situations around the two veterans give the Kings plenty to think about before they settle on who should wear the letter for good. [Read more 🡒]
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For the Kings, the appeal is obvious: Perry has long been the sort of depth piece contenders lean on when they need experience to complement younger legs and a heavier style of play. He is also closing in on a major career milestone, and every game he plays this season will add another layer to a career that has already lasted longer than most. The real question is not whether he can still be useful, but how much he has left to give once the grind of another full season starts to set in. [Read more 🡒]