Pete Crow-Armstrong has changed the shape of the National League MVP race.
Not long ago, Shohei Ohtani looked like the easy answer for the award again. Now, with seven weeks left in the season, the Cubs center fielder has surged past him and sits as the favorite to win it outright.
The biggest reason is simple: Ohtani’s time on the mound has been interrupted by a lingering knee injury. He hasn’t pitched since July 3, and while he remains in the Dodgers’ lineup as the DH, that absence from the rotation has created just enough daylight for Crow-Armstrong to move ahead.
Ohtani’s season still reads like a star’s season. He has 26 home runs, 71 RBIs and a .937 OPS. He’s produced 3.5 fWAR at the plate in 112 games and another 3.0 fWAR on the mound, where he owns a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts and 26 walks across 85 ⅔ innings.
But Crow-Armstrong has been on a run that’s hard to ignore, and it starts with his glove. In 2026, he has been MLB’s best defensive player by a wide margin.
He leads the league with 22 outs above average, eight more than any other outfielder, and he has prevented 20 runs, the most in baseball. That should put him in line for his first Platinum Glove, and it also gives him a real path to the NL MVP.
His defense has always been part of the package. What has pushed him into the center of this race is the jump he’s made at the plate.
Crow-Armstrong has taken his on-base percentage from .287 last season to .388 this year, a gain of more than 100 points. He still strikes out a lot - his 26.8% strikeout rate in ’26 is more than 82% of hitters - but his walk rate has more than doubled, rising from 4.5% last season, when he drew 29 walks in 157 games, to 12.3% this year, when he already has 64 walks in 119 games.
That improvement has fueled a career-high .932 OPS, which ranks third among qualified hitters behind only Yordan Alvarez (.1.059) and Ohtani (.937). And it’s not just a matter of reaching base more often. Crow-Armstrong has matched Ohtani with 26 home runs and 71 RBIs, while also piling up 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts.
He’s added 56 extra-base hits, six more than Ohtani, and has scored 84 runs, which is 11 more than Ohtani.
The growth has been especially clear against left-handed pitching, where he was badly exposed in previous seasons. Last year, Crow-Armstrong posted a .838 OPS against righties but just .594 against lefties.
This season, he has flipped that script completely, putting up a .945 OPS against southpaws - more than 250 points better - and a .925 OPS against right-handers. That kind of leap has turned him into a much more complete hitter.
All of it has added up to a league-best 8.0 fWAR. Ohtani is next at 6.5, and no other player in MLB is above 5.6. In a race that has clearly narrowed to two names, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive dominance in center field is what gives him the edge.
Ohtani can still make this interesting again. The longer he stays off the mound, though, the more room Crow-Armstrong has to build on his lead. The expectation is that Ohtani will pitch again before the end of the regular season, but the Dodgers are expected to be extremely careful with him as they chase a third straight World Series title.
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