Shohei Ohtani’s MVP case in the National League may come down to one familiar sight: him back on the mound for the Dodgers.
That’s the view USA Today’s Bob Nightengale laid out as the race tightens between Ohtani and Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Los Angeles having stumbled through a seven-game losing streak before beating the Arizona Diamondbacks in extra innings on Saturday night, Ohtani’s impact keeps standing out. But Crow-Armstrong has surged right alongside him, and Nightengale believes the deciding factor could be whether Ohtani pitches again before the regular season ends.
“The National League MVP award could come down to simply whether Shohei Ohtani takes the mound again for the Dodgers,” Nightengale writes.
He went even further in spelling out how he sees the race breaking:
"If Ohtani, who hasn't pitched since July 3, returns to the mound, he'll win his fifth MVP award," Nightengale writes. "If Ohtani stays as a DH, and Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to play as he has, he'll become the first Cubs player to win the MVP since Kris Bryant in 2016."
The numbers show why this one feels so close. Ohtani has 121 hits, 73 runs scored, 22 doubles, two triples, 26 home runs, 71 RBIs, six stolen bases, 69 walks, 112 strikeouts, a .294 batting average, .398 on-base percentage, .547 slugging percentage, and an NL-best .945 OPS and 160 OPS+.
Crow-Armstrong is right there too, with 127 hits, 82 runs scored, 22 doubles, seven triples, 26 home runs, 71 RBIs, 30 stolen bases, 64 walks, 139 strikeouts, a .287 batting average, .388 on-base percentage, .545 slugging percentage, a .934 OPS, and a 158 OPS+.
Ohtani’s edge has always been that he brings more than one kind of value. As a pitcher, he owns a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts with an 8-2 record, 95 strikeouts, a 0.946 WHIP, 2.60 FIP, and a 232 ERA+ in 85.2 innings. He has 2.9 bWAR as a pitcher and 3.4 bWAR as a hitter, for 6.3 bWAR overall.
Even so, Crow-Armstrong has piled up 7.4 bWAR despite not pitching and posting weaker offensive numbers. The difference is in the glove. PCA has been the best defender in MLB this season, and he may even be building a case as one of the best defensive center fielders in MLB history.
That’s what gives the Cubs star a real opening if Ohtani stays in DH mode. Without the added value from pitching or playing the field, Ohtani’s path gets tougher, especially if Crow-Armstrong keeps producing on both sides of the ball.
Ohtani will still draw plenty of MVP support. But if he wants to slam the door on PCA, the safest route may be the one Nightengale pointed to: get back on the mound, and do it at a high level.
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