The Dodgers are starting to show their hand on the mound.
For the final two games of the homestand, they’ve nudged their rotation into a shape that looks a lot like October: Tarik Skubal on Tuesday on four days’ rest, then Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Wednesday before the Thursday off day.
“I know Mark [Prior, pitching coach] talked it out with both guys, but I don’t know exactly what the details are,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters Monday at Dodger Stadium.
That setup points to the postseason plan the Dodgers would most likely prefer, with Skubal in Game 1 and Yamamoto in Game 2. In a best-of-7 series, the Game 1 starter would also line up to pitch Game 5 on four days’ rest. The Dodgers have not used their Japanese ace on fewer than five days’ rest in any of his three seasons with the club, though his World Series relief work on zero days’ rest last year still stands as part of the picture.
There’s the October logic, and then there’s the reality of the final 18 games on the schedule.
Roberts said Monday that the Dodgers still need to cover a few starts over the stretch run. Emmet Sheehan, coming off his strong outing Monday, will take the ball again Sunday in Miami. Roki Sasaki is also close to coming off the injured list, though the exact timing of his return remains undecided.
The seeding picture matters, too. If the Dodgers finish with the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, they’d skip straight to the National League Division Series and get five days off before a Saturday, October 3 postseason start. If they land at No. 3, they’d be forced into the wild card round beginning Tuesday, September 29.
Entering Tuesday, the Dodgers sat a game and a half behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the No. 1 seed and two games ahead of the Atlanta Braves for No. 2. They don’t own the tiebreaker against either club, so they’ll need to finish ahead of them outright.
That’s why the rotation math gets interesting. With Sheehan going Sunday in Miami, the Dodgers could go to Skubal next Monday, September 14 on five days’ rest, then use him twice more on four days’ rest - September 19 and 24 - to keep him ready for a Game 1 start in a wild card series on September 29. But that would be a pretty aggressive push.
Another path would be to slot Sasaki in next Monday and keep Skubal and Yamamoto in order once a week for the next three turns. That would leave them positioned either for a wild card series or with enough room for a tuneup before the Division Series opener on October 3-4.
This week appears mostly settled, but the final two weeks give the Dodgers room to adjust almost however they want. Justin Wrobleski could step in with a bulk outing, Bobby Miller could do the same in the final week once his 15 days on optional assignment are finished, and the club will likely want Sasaki to get some relief work before October, since that’s how he’ll be used in the postseason.
A rest-of-season rotation plan could take a few different forms, but the message is clear: the Dodgers are lining things up with October in mind.
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