The Dodgers have a massive offseason ahead, but one of the biggest questions hanging over them is Tarik Skubal. And according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, the answer may be simple: Los Angeles could be boxed out by the calendar.
Gonzalez is predicting the Dodgers “won't sign Skubal to a mega extension ... before Dec. 1,” and the reason comes down to the looming threat of an MLB lockout. He added, “Skubal's agent, Scott Boras, will probably want to get something done with his client before the lockout, but it would be really difficult for the Dodgers to justify signing Skubal to a massive deal before knowing what MLB's economic model will look like.”
That uncertainty matters because a potential lockout at the start of December could leave the league’s payroll structure in flux. For a Dodgers team already carrying the highest projected payroll for 2027 by a wide margin, another huge commitment may be hard to defend.
Skubal would not be a small swing, either. The source points to the kind of deal he’s expected to command this winter - something in the $300 million-plus range - and that’s exactly the sort of number the Dodgers may hesitate to authorize while the sport’s financial rules remain unclear.
If there were no lockout threat, Los Angeles might be more willing to spend aggressively and try to lock him in. Instead, the possibility of new payroll restrictions or a salary cap creates a very different calculation.
That leaves the Dodgers in a difficult spot, with Gonzalez projecting they won’t get a deal done before December 1. If that happens, it could open the door for Skubal to reach the open market, where teams such as the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, and other contenders with money to spend would be positioned to make a serious run.
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