The Dodgers may still be in the Tarik Skubal conversation, but the path to a reunion is looking a lot steeper than it did a few weeks ago.
Los Angeles once seemed like the obvious landing spot when the trade deadline picture was taking shape, and the club did end up acquiring the star pitcher from the Detroit Tigers for three top prospects. Skubal spent nearly three months with the Dodgers, and reports indicate he liked his time in Los Angeles and would welcome a return. But the idea that a long-term deal was a foregone conclusion is starting to fade fast.
Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that the Dodgers are not eager to add another massive, long-term contract to their payroll. “The looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement and the ensuing financial uncertainty will likely deter the Dodgers from agreeing to any lucrative long-term deals this offseason,” Woo wrote.
That doesn’t mean the Dodgers are out. They’ve already met with Skubal’s camp and are expected to hold a formal meeting with him next week.
Still, the structure of any offer appears to be the real sticking point. Woo reported that Los Angeles’ interest depends on Skubal being willing to take a shorter deal than what other teams are likely to put on the table.
“The Athletic projected Skubal to land a nine-year, $405 million deal, which would top Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s mark of 12 years, $325 million as the highest-paid pitcher in MLB.
The Dodgers will stray from that type of contract.”
That lines up with the kind of approach the Dodgers used with Kyle Tucker last year, when they preferred a short-term deal with a high average annual value. If Skubal were open to that kind of setup, Los Angeles would still have a real shot.
But ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Skubal is not looking for that route. “Certainly the Dodgers will be in the mix on Skubal, but to what extent is unclear,” Passan wrote. “Unlike Kyle Tucker last offseason, Skubal has no interest in a shorter-term, higher-dollar deal, which could disadvantage the Dodgers when contending with the New York Mets (or the San Diego Padres or Toronto Blue Jays).”
Passan later added that Skubal “will command at least $45 million a year.” That figure would likely need to stretch over at least eight years.
The Dodgers have shown they can pivot when the market shifts, and last offseason’s Tucker situation is proof of that. But Skubal’s preference appears to be leaning the other way, toward long-term security rather than chasing a bigger annual payday over a shorter span. That matters even more for a pitcher who has already gone through three major elbow surgeries.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, is trying to keep its World Series window open for the long haul, and another huge commitment may not fit the plan. The Dodgers, Mets, Blue Jays and Padres are all scheduled to meet with Skubal next week, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported that two additional mystery teams also have meetings lined up.
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