Jeff Passan’s latest read on Tarik Skubal’s free agency has given Dodgers fans a clear picture of the kind of fight Los Angeles could be staring at if it wants to keep him.
The ESPN insider said Skubal could end up with a deal that lands at roughly twice the seven-year, $245 million contract Stephen Strasburg signed with the Washington Nationals in 2019, as long as MLB’s next collective bargaining agreement does not bring a salary cap. That would put the left-hander in the neighborhood of $490 million.
Passan also pointed out that Skubal turns 30 in November, which means a contract at that level would likely have to run at least 10 years. Even so, he expects someone to pay up because there just isn’t another pitcher like Skubal available.
For the Dodgers, that sets up a simple, brutal reality. Either they outbid Steve Cohen and the New York Mets, or Skubal ends up in Queens. Passan’s report makes it sound like those are the only two outcomes.
Other teams could try to get involved, but the pool of clubs ready to commit something close to half a billion dollars to a pitcher is tiny. Los Angeles is obviously one of them. The Dodgers already handed Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 12-year, $325 million deal, and their 2026 luxury-tax payroll has again climbed toward $400 million.
The Mets are the other obvious threat. Cohen has already shown he doesn’t blink when the right star hits the market, and Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million contract is the clearest example.
Passan’s report gets even more pointed because Skubal fits the exact kind of arm the Mets could decide to chase hard after a disappointing 2026 season: a true ace.
That’s what makes this so dangerous for the Dodgers. Skubal hasn’t exactly cooled the market, either. He has a 2.93 ERA through his first seven starts with Los Angeles and most recently worked 7 1/3 innings while giving up two runs against the Cincinnati Reds.
He’s pitching like someone the Dodgers would want to keep. He’s also pitching like someone Cohen could want to take away.
The biggest wrinkle is still the CBA. MLB’s current agreement expires Dec. 1, and owners have pushed for a salary cap, which could dramatically change Skubal’s market.
If there isn’t one, though, the Dodgers shouldn’t count on any discount just because he spent two months in Los Angeles. They should expect Cohen.
And if Passan’s projection ends up anywhere close to right, the Dodgers may have to win a bidding war against the one owner in baseball who has made a habit of turning free agency into a financial showdown.
In Other News...
Dodgers Quietly Made A Roster Move With Bigger Implications
The Dodgers made a quiet late-season roster move with bigger implications, shifting Eric Lauer from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list after elbow inflammation ended his year. It closes the book on a brief but uneven run for Lauer, who finished with a 5.23 ERA over 22 appearances and now heads into the offseason set to look for a new contract.
More important for Los Angeles, the transaction opened a spot on the 40-man roster for top prospect Josue De Paula, a name Dodgers fans have been tracking closely as the organization continues to juggle immediate depth with future upside. Even for a team that is always thinking several moves ahead, this was the kind of understated roster shift that hints at what may be coming next. [Read more 🡒]
Dodgers May Have Found An Unexpected October Arm After All
The Dodgers spent the summer piecing together pitching depth with October in mind, and Kris Bubic has quietly become a name worth watching. Acquired despite his recent shoulder injuries and limited appearances, the left-hander has started to build a case during a minor-league rehab assignment, where he has turned in five scoreless innings and shown enough life to get into back-to-back games.
For a club that is always looking for one more usable arm when the games get tighter, the timing matters as much as the performance. Los Angeles is already adjusting its postseason plan after Shohei Ohtanis season-ending injury, and Bubics recent stretch at least opens the door to a relief role in the playoff bullpen if the Dodgers decide he is ready for that kind of October trust. [Read more 🡒]
Freddie Freemans Absence Just Raised A Bigger Dodgers Concern
Freddie Freeman sat out his second straight game with right knee soreness, and for a Dodgers team trying to keep its lineup stable, the timing is worth watching. Manager Dave Roberts said Freeman received treatment and is expected back the following day, but the bigger point is that this has not been a one-day inconvenience. It has started to show up in Freemans hitting, which makes the absence feel less like a routine maintenance day and more like something the Dodgers need to monitor closely.
Los Angeles has leaned on Freeman for middle-of-the-order consistency, so even a short stretch without him changes the look of the lineup. If the knee issue is still bothering him at the plate, the Dodgers are not just waiting for him to return to first base, they are waiting to see whether he can get back to being himself once he does. [Read more 🡒]