The Dodgers’ trouble with the Automated Ball-Strike challenge system has become impossible to ignore, and Monday’s series opener against the Royals put the problem right under the spotlight.
Los Angeles burned through challenges in spots that didn’t carry much weight, then found itself empty-handed when the game actually demanded one. In the third inning, Andy Pages challenged a strike call after a fastball in the zone had been ruled a strike. It came with two outs and a runner on second, early enough in a game the Dodgers were already trailing by two runs that it could be labeled medium leverage.
A frame later, Miguel Rojas challenged a strike call on a fastball that was fully in the zone, turning the count into 1-1. That challenge was wasted in a low-leverage moment, with no one on base to start the fourth.
Then came the one that mattered. Late in a tied game with a runner on first, Pages took strike three on a 3-2 pitch that was inside and clearly off the zone.
He appeared frustrated and seemed ready to tap his helmet before realizing the Dodgers had no challenges left. Because they had spent them earlier, what could have been two on and nobody out in the seventh inning instead became one on and one out.
Dave Roberts knows the club has to tighten that up.
“We’re going to keep having those conversations, yeah,” Roberts said. “We’ve gotten sideways on that.”
The Dodgers’ overall numbers are still decent, but the trend is slipping in the wrong direction. They own a 54% success rate at the plate, tied for fourth in MLB, and their catchers and pitchers have a 60% success rate, tied for 11th.
A big part of that stronger overall mark came from their challenge work in May and June, when both their win rate and their reasonable challenge rate were above league average. July was a different story.
The Dodgers won half of their challenges, but their reasonable challenge rate dropped to 57%, about 20% below where it had been in the earlier months. They also finished at -2.6 overturns versus expected, near the bottom of the league.
That’s the kind of inefficiency that can sting now and haunt a team later. The Dodgers need better timing, not just better results, because wasting a challenge in a low-leverage moment in October could be a costly mistake when a bigger one is waiting around the corner.
Pages has been the main offender. His 23 challenges are nine more than anyone else on the team, and his 48% success rate is the third-lowest among the Dodgers’ active players.
He also sits at -1.2 overturns versus expected, with a -0.6 net runs for that ranks among the worst in MLB. His 57% reasonable challenge rate is also among the poorest in the league for players who have challenged at least five pitches.
Alex Call has also had rough results with the system, going 40% on his challenges with -0.3 net runs for. He has only 10 attempts, though, and that has come in limited playing time.
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