Tarik Skubal’s next contract could end up in a range that sounds almost absurd on first listen, but that’s the territory the Dodgers may have to enter if they want to land him. Former major league general manager Jim Bowden said on 97.1-FM The Fan that the left-hander could wind up with the biggest pitching deal in baseball history, whether that comes through average annual value or total money.
"He's going to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball history, either by AAV or the full deal," Bowden told Bill Reiter and Doug McKain on 97.1-FM The Fan. "When I tried to put a number on what he's going to get ...
I said, kind of with a sense of humor, somewhere between $350 and $500 million, depending on length of contract. That's really what I believe."
That kind of price tag would not scare off Los Angeles on its own. The Dodgers have made a habit of chasing elite talent in midseason trades under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, and a few of those players - Rich Hill and Tommy Edman among them - stayed on by re-signing. Others, including Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer, Manny Machado and Jack Flaherty, moved on.
Bowden said the buzz he’s heard points toward Skubal being open to more than just a short-term stop in Los Angeles.
"I think - and again, this is not him telling me or anyone else this - but the sense I get from people that he has talked to is, he would love to continue being a Los Angeles Dodger," Bowden said. "He loved his time with LA. He loved how the front office, and research and development department, and the pitching room, were able to help him to really show him the things he does well, and how they can help him become an even better pitcher than the guy who's won two Cy Young Awards."
"I do think it's a perfect marriage for LA," he added. "I just think it's complicated because of the contract."
The timing matters just as much as the money. The current collective bargaining agreement runs through the end of November and expires Dec. 1, which means the same setup that let the Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million contract in January is still in place for now.
Bowden suggested a shorter, massive annual-value deal could fit what Los Angeles might want, even if the numbers are eye-popping - something like $75 million per year over four seasons.
But that all depends on what happens in labor talks. If MLB’s proposed cap-and-floor system becomes reality, a deal in that neighborhood could be off the table, especially for teams already near the top of the payroll ladder. A hard cap would make it tougher for clubs like the Dodgers to keep adding to their spending for 2027 and beyond.
If Skubal is still unsigned by Dec. 1, that could pull the Dodgers out of the race. It’s not clear whether Skubal and his agent, Scott Boras, want to get something done before a lockout starts. For now, though, the fit appears to run both ways.
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