The Los Angeles Dodgers’ season ending in a four-game sweep by the Milwaukee Brewers is hard enough to process. What makes it even more striking is the role Tarik Skubal played in getting them as far as they went.
Skubal arrived at the trade deadline as something of a luxury piece, but he quickly became central to the Dodgers’ postseason plans. When Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves came around, and again for Game 1 of the NL Championship Series against Milwaukee, the Dodgers chose Skubal over Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow.
He delivered, too. Skubal gave up just three runs over his two postseason outings, and in the regular season after the trade he posted a 2.61 ERA. Now the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner hits free agency as the biggest name on the market.
That alone would make him a fascinating case for a lot of teams. For the Dodgers, it pushes the question into a different stratosphere. They have the money to chase him, and maybe one of the few ownership groups that can even think seriously about bringing him back after only a few months of service.
The price tag is the first thing that looms. Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal set the standard for top-end starting pitchers when he signed in December 2023, and the comparison gets even more interesting because Skubal will open next season at age 30.
Strip the first five years off Yamamoto’s contract, and the figure is still close to $200 million over seven years beginning at age 30. Skubal’s deal would be expected to land in that neighborhood.
On paper, keeping Skubal gives the Dodgers a rotation that would be intimidating. But the real complication is what happens when you look down the road. A long-term commitment would leave the Dodgers carrying a lot of age in the same group.
Glasnow is 33 and signed through 2028. Snell turns 34 in December and is under contract through 2029.
Yamamoto is 28 and signed through 2033. Roki Sasaki, who turns 25 in November, adds a younger arm to the mix, while Shohei Ohtani’s 32-year-old right arm comes with however many innings it still has left.
The Dodgers also have enough depth to absorb injuries if they come. Right-hander Emmet Sheehan and left-hander Justin Wrobleski combined for 44 starts in 2026, and Wrobleski even made the National League All-Star team before fading late.
This is a team that has long treated MLB’s luxury-tax thresholds like minor obstacles on the way to bigger goals. And it has also shown a willingness to keep a six-man rotation stocked with as many starters as needed, while trying to keep everyone healthy and satisfied. In that sense, a crowded staff and a massive payroll are not what make Skubal complicated.
The real issue could be the next labor deal. If MLB wins its fight with the MLB Players’ Association and installs a hard cap on salaries, the Dodgers would feel it more than just about anyone. That’s why the money question is so hard to pin down right now, especially if Skubal is looking at seven years or more.
So the debate comes down to commitment. Do the Dodgers go all-in on arguably the best pitcher in baseball, or do they let another club take on the very real risk that comes with pitchers over 30, especially when Ohtani, Snell and Glasnow already bring their own concerns?
In a rotation made up mostly of pitchers in their 20s, Skubal’s age would be easier to stomach. For the Dodgers, there are strong arguments on both sides, which is why this may be the toughest call their front office makes all winter.
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