The Tarik Skubal sweepstakes already has the feel of a standoff, and the Dodgers are right in the middle of it.
Los Angeles fans have heard plenty about Skubal since Andrew Friedman pried him away from the Detroit Tigers at the deadline. The chatter has barely stopped: first the buzz about a possible long-term pairing with Blake Snell, then Skubal saying on “Pardon My Take” that he’d love to return to Detroit, then reports that the Chicago Cubs “badly” want him. So when Chelsea Janes reported that the New York Mets were expected to match whatever Skubal is offered elsewhere, it was just the latest turn in a story that keeps circling back to the same name.
Alden Gonzalez of ESPN added another layer, writing that his sense is Skubal would love to return to the Dodgers, and that Los Angeles has one edge the Mets can’t duplicate: a standing chance to contend for a title every year. Still, the two front offices haven’t exactly been shouting their intentions from the rooftops.
Friedman has mostly said the Dodgers would “continue to talk to Scott [Boras]” and are still sorting out their offseason plan. David Stearns, meanwhile, has talked about the Mets needing to develop pitchers at the top of their rotation over the long term, which doesn’t sound like a club eager to jump straight into the richest pitching contract ever.
The real pressure point may be Scott Boras.
Skubal’s agent has been pushing the market hard, telling The Athletic’s Andy McCullough that many teams would be better off signing players before the new CBA than after it. He has also warned that no club should let rivals move first while it tells its own fans it chose to wait. Boras has done this before, too, getting Corey Seager’s and Marcus Semien’s deals with Texas done right before the last lockout froze everything in 2021.
That’s why this is starting to look less like a bidding war and more like a game of chicken. Gonzalez reported in October that it would be very hard for the Dodgers to justify a huge deal before they know the sport’s next economic setup, especially with owners still pushing for a salary cap.
MLB’s latest proposal would keep the current luxury tax system for 2027 and push a $258.2 million hard cap to 2028. If the Mets really are willing to match anything, then waiting Boras out could backfire fast if Skubal signs somewhere else before Friedman makes his move.
There’s also the question of whether the price matches the risk. Skubal has produced some of the most historic numbers any pitcher has put up in recent seasons, but he also missed six weeks this year while cleaning up an elbow issue. His medical history includes 2017 Tommy John surgery and a 2022 flexor tendon procedure, and he turns 30 on November 20.
The price tags being floated are enormous. MLB Trade Rumors projects nine years and $425 million, while agents told ESPN’s Buster Olney that a shorter deal in the Kyle Tucker range - around $60 million a year - may be the more realistic path. Even if Skubal keeps dealing at an electric level for the next few seasons, locking in a pitcher with that background for nine more years is exactly the kind of decision that can make teams hesitate.
Then there’s the structure. Deferred money has become a Dodgers calling card, from Shohei Ohtani to the $65 million pushed into the future in Snell’s deal, and owners proposed eliminating deferred contracts back in June. If Friedman wants Skubal under the current rules, he has a chance to get creative in a way the next CBA might not permit.
So somebody eventually has to move. With Boras keeping the clock running and Steve Cohen holding the checkbook, the Dodgers are left hoping Friedman decides that staying patient isn’t worth the risk of watching Skubal pitch in Queens.
In Other News...
Former Dodgers Catcher Is Headed To A Rival Organization
AJ Ellis has found another stop in a baseball life that has already taken him from the Dodgers clubhouse to the Padres front office. The former longtime Los Angeles catcher, who is currently working as a special assistant in San Diego, is reportedly headed to the Mets as a major league strategy coordinator in 2027, a move that keeps him in the game from a different angle and sends him to a rival organization with plenty of his own ambitions.
For the Dodgers, the timing comes amid a busy stretch of roster churn, with 13 players electing minor league free agency, including several who have big league experience. There is also some prospect activity worth watching in the Arizona Fall League, where Chase Harlan, Brooks Auger and Luke Fox are getting extra work, and Harlan and Auger have earned spots in the Fall Stars Game. [Read more 🡒]
Blake Snell Just Added Intrigue To Dodgers' Tarik Skubal Pursuit
Blake Snell has done more than just monitor Tarik Skubals situation from afar. The Dodgers left-hander has made it clear he would like to see Skubal stay with Los Angeles, and he has been actively communicating with the pitcher as the club tries to keep one of its biggest priorities from drifting into the open market.
Snells relationship with Skubal adds another layer to a pursuit already shaped by the realities of free agency. The Dodgers want to retain him, but the decision is expected to come down to money and family considerations, with other teams able to create a meaningful gap in offers. Even with Snell in the middle of the conversation, Los Angeles is still facing a difficult fight to hold onto him. [Read more 🡒]
Dodgers Hitting Shakeup Raises Bigger Questions Than Fans Expected
The Dodgers offseason hitting shakeup arrived with more uncertainty than clarity, as Aaron Bates is out after the sides could not agree on contract terms despite the team initially putting a multiyear deal on the table. His departure comes on the heels of an offense that sputtered in the postseason and again in the second half, turning what might have been a routine staff adjustment into a more meaningful question about how the club wants to recalibrate its approach at the plate.
What makes the move more intriguing is what has not happened yet. The Dodgers have not said how they plan to fill the opening, and there has been no indication of any change to co-hitting coach Robert Van Scyocs role, leaving the structure of the hitting department unsettled for now. For a team that expects to contend every year, the next decision here could say as much about the organizations priorities as the one that just sent Bates out the door. [Read more 🡒]