Evan Phillips’ Free Agency Strategy: Betting on Health, Timing, and Track Record
Evan Phillips isn’t rushing into anything. The former Dodgers closer, now a free agent after being non-tendered in November, is playing the long game - and for good reason.
Phillips is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in early June. That alone makes 2026 a question mark.
Add in the fact that he was projected to earn $6.1 million in arbitration, and the Dodgers - already facing significant tax penalties - made the tough call to move on. But that doesn’t mean Phillips is off the radar.
Far from it.
A Proven Arm with a Strategic Approach
Phillips isn’t looking for a typical two-year rehab-and-return deal that’s become common among pitchers coming off UCL surgery. Instead, he’s aiming for a one-year contract - a move that gives him flexibility and a chance to re-enter the market in a stronger position next offseason.
According to reports, Phillips plans to wait until at least January to sign, once he’s cleared to start throwing again. He may even hold out until July, when he’s game-ready. That’s a bold move, but one that could pay off if he’s healthy and teams are in need of bullpen help down the stretch.
The Boston Red Sox are among the teams showing early interest, but they’re likely just one of several quietly monitoring his progress. And why wouldn’t they be? When healthy, Phillips has been one of the most effective relievers in baseball.
Dominance in Dodger Blue
Phillips’ breakout came in 2022, his first full season with the Dodgers after being picked up off waivers from the Rays. That year, he posted a jaw-dropping 1.14 ERA over 63 innings, striking out 33% of the batters he faced while walking just 6.4%. That wasn’t a fluke.
From 2022 through mid-2025 - before the injury - Phillips logged 184 2/3 innings with a 2.14 ERA, 45 saves, and 36 holds. His strikeout rate hovered just under 30%, his walk rate stayed below 7%, and he limited home runs to just 0.68 per nine innings.
His pitch mix was electric: a four-seamer touching 96 mph, a sinker at 95.8, a cutter at 93.1, and a biting slider at 85.1. He wasn’t just getting outs - he was dominating.
Why Wait?
There’s strategic upside to Phillips’ patience. Signing in January gives teams a chance to assess his rehab progress, even if he’s not yet back to full strength. That kind of visibility can help build confidence in his recovery - and potentially boost his market value.
Waiting until July, however, gives him even more control. By then, he’ll have a better sense of which teams are legitimate contenders and which bullpens are in need of reinforcements. He could target a playoff-caliber club, showcase his stuff in meaningful games, and then hit free agency again with a fresh set of highlights and no qualifying offer (QO) attached.
That last part matters. Players must be on a team’s roster or injured list for the full season to be eligible for a QO. By signing midseason, Phillips eliminates that possibility - a move that protects his future earnings, even if the odds of receiving a QO were already slim due to the injury.
The QO Factor
It’s rare for relievers to receive a qualifying offer, but it does happen. In the last five years, only three have gotten and rejected QOs: Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader, and Edwin Díaz - elite closers at the top of their game.
Phillips was trending toward that tier before the injury, but a QO would only be realistic if he returns in 2026 and utterly dominates in a short window. That’s a tall ask, but not out of the question given his track record.
Still, from Phillips’ perspective, why risk it? By waiting to sign, he avoids the QO entirely and keeps his 2026-27 free agency window clean.
A Familiar Blueprint?
There’s a recent example that loosely mirrors Phillips’ situation: David Robertson. Last offseason, Robertson didn’t get the deal he wanted and waited until July to sign with the Phillies. He landed a prorated $16 million contract - earning about $6 million for a few months of work - and joined a contender right before the trade deadline.
Robertson was healthy, while Phillips is still rehabbing, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. But the strategy is similar: wait, get fully right, and then pick your spot. If Phillips doesn’t find a deal he likes in January or February, he could follow that same playbook - especially if his rehab continues without setbacks.
What Comes Next?
The next few months will be telling. Once Phillips resumes throwing, teams will get a clearer picture of where he stands. If someone makes a fair offer early, he’ll have to weigh the security of locking something in now versus the potential upside of waiting.
But one thing’s clear: Evan Phillips isn’t rushing into anything. He’s betting on himself - and if his arm comes back anywhere close to what it was, that bet could pay off in a big way.