Dodgers Can Survive Kyle Tucker's Slump But It Still Feels Risky

While Kyle Tucker's struggles spark concern, the Dodgers remain unfazed, unlike their division rivals dealing with far tougher financial and performance dilemmas.

Kyle Tucker hasn’t given the Dodgers the kind of return they probably expected when they added him, but even with his uneven season, his contract doesn’t belong in the same conversation as the headaches facing two division rivals.

Tucker is posting his worst WAR since 2019, when he played only 22 games, and several of his numbers have sunk to their lowest levels since then as well. His slugging percentage sits at .384 and his OPS at .721, a rough line for a player whose deal will cost the team $57 million of payroll in 2026 as part of a four-year, $240 million contract.

That’s not ideal. But in the NL West, it still looks manageable.

The difference starts with the Dodgers’ financial muscle. Fangraphs projects their payroll at $397 million, nearly $30 million more than the Mets and the highest figure in baseball.

With deferred money attached to stars like Shohei Ohtani and Tucker, the Dodgers have been able to keep chasing marquee talent year after year. Most clubs can’t operate that way, and the Giants and Padres are living with the consequences.

Rafael Devers is the clearest example. He arrived with a 10-year, $313.5 million deal from Boston and now accounts for nearly 15% of the Giants’ payroll.

Manny Machado’s share is closer to 12% for San Diego. Those are heavy lifts for teams without the Dodgers’ flexibility, especially when the production doesn’t match the commitment.

Devers was supposed to be the centerpiece in San Francisco’s lineup for the next decade: a middle-of-the-order bat, a clubhouse presence and a source of left-handed power. Instead, the Giants are left with a far messier picture and no easy exit.

The situation only gets trickier when the off-field dynamics are part of the story, too. His clash with Boston brass over his primary position, along with his pinch-running ordeal, has added another layer of tension.

And the performance hasn’t helped. Like Tucker, Devers is striking out more and walking less, while his on-base percentage, OPS and OPS+ have all dropped sharply.

He also looks more like a DH than anything else.

Machado’s case is just as harsh in a different way. He and Fernando Tatis Jr. are supposed to be the Padres’ one-two punch, but Machado has been the one carrying the bigger burden.

He’s hitting .186 with an 82 OPS+, his strikeout rate is 25.2%, a career high, and his batting run value is -5. San Diego is still hanging around the Wild Card race, but with seven years left on Machado’s deal, that kind of production makes the margin for error awfully thin.

That’s where Tucker’s situation looks far less damaging by comparison. The Dodgers have already built baseball’s best lineup, with Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani and Andy Pages around him to absorb some of the cold stretches. And the ceiling is still there, especially if he follows the same pattern he showed in Houston and heats up down the stretch.

For now, the Dodgers have every reason to be impatient with Tucker’s production. But in a division where the Giants and Padres are carrying much heavier burdens on much shakier returns, his deal is nowhere near the biggest problem.

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