The Dodgers didn’t hand Kyle Tucker a four-year, $240 million deal because they were pinching pennies. They did it because they could, and because they believed he would solve a corner outfield need while they kept pushing toward another title run.
That bet has not paid off so far.
Tucker’s OPS is under .700 this season, which sits below league average, and the Dodgers are now staring at the downside of paying premium money for production that hasn’t shown up. Los Angeles still owns the best record in baseball and sits atop our MLB Power Rankings, but Tucker’s struggles are turning into a real long-term problem.
The price tag only makes the situation sting more. Per Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, once the luxury tax penalty is folded in, the Dodgers have put more than $119 million into Tucker this season alone.
That figure is larger than the Opening Day payroll of 11 teams. Verducci also laid out just how rough the underlying numbers have been.
“Tucker, 29, has been a huge disappointment. The lack of pop in his bat has been alarming.
Tucker has posted career full-season worsts in bat speed (71.3), exit velocity (88.8), hard-hit percentage (39%), rollover groundballs (22.4%), barrel rate (5.8%), two-strike hitting (.165) and runners in scoring position (.247). His frustration sometimes has been evident,” Verducci wrote.
The Dodgers expected Tucker’s decline, if it came, to happen later. Instead, they’re getting a version of him whose bat has gone quiet and whose defense has slipped from close to league average - 52nd percentile in run value - to one of the worst marks in MLB, at the 22nd percentile.
And if Tucker never gets back to form, the Dodgers will have to find offense elsewhere. That’s not a simple fix, especially with the market for productive outfield bats shrinking and free agency facing an uncertain future if a lockout looms.
For now, the most realistic answer may come from inside the organization. All four of the Dodgers’ top prospects are outfielders, and all four rank in MLB Pipeline’s top 30. Josue De Paula, Mike Sirota, and Zyhir Hope are all projected to reach the majors sometime in the 2027 season.
Until then, Tucker’s contract is the kind of luxury-tax gamble that can look a lot heavier when the bat isn’t carrying its share. He’s hitting just .222 with a .554 OPS in July so far, and if that doesn’t change, the Dodgers may be stuck with the most expensive bench bat in baseball.
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