The Dodgers are staring at a 2-0 hole in the NLCS, and that usually means trouble. In MLB playoff history, teams that fall behind in a best-of-seven series 2-0 are 16-79. That’s the mountain Los Angeles has to climb as it brings the series back to Dodger Stadium for Game 3 on Wednesday evening.
But “trouble” and “finished” are not the same thing, and this is still the Dodgers. They’ve been talked about as if a World Series run was almost automatic for much of the season, and even now it would be reckless to write them off. The Brewers may have grabbed the early edge, but the champs have more than one path back into this thing.
The most obvious boost is location. The Dodgers head home, where things should feel a lot more comfortable after not having played there since Oct.
- The Brewers were seven games worse on the road during the regular season, and they went 1-1 in San Diego last round after going 4-0 in American Family Field.
Then there’s Shohei Ohtani, who simply has to be better at some point. He has been dealing with knee and biceps injuries since July and hasn’t looked right at the plate since the middle of August.
In the playoffs, he is 3 for 20 with seven strikeouts and no extra-base hits. The Dodgers have considered benching him, but he will be in the lineup again for Game 3.
Ohtani keeps saying he isn’t that hurt and will figure it out soon, and if that happens, it changes the whole shape of the Dodgers’ offense. This is the same player who put together three doubles, a triple, eight homers, 14 RBI and 13 runs in 17 games last postseason while posting a 1.096 OPS. He even had a three-homer game against the Brewers in Game 4 of the NLCS.
Power matters even more in October because clean hit strings are so much harder to come by against elite pitching and defense. That’s where the Dodgers still have a real edge.
They finished tied for seventh in the regular season with 204 home runs, and that number came with Ohtani compromised for months, plus injury issues for Will Smith and a mostly lost season from Kyle Tucker. In other words, the raw power was probably better than the season-long total suggests.
Through two home playoff games, the Dodgers have already hit five home runs.
Pitching is another reason this series is not over. Teams that lose twice to Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto would usually be in emergency mode, but Los Angeles can answer with a staff that is built to swing a series quickly.
Blake Snell gets the ball in Game 3, and the last time he saw the Brewers in October, he tossed eight shutout innings in NLCS Game 1 last year with 10 strikeouts and just one hit allowed. He’s been shaky at times, including five runs allowed in both of his World Series starts and five walks in his previous postseason outing, but he still has the ability to take over a game.
Tyler Glasnow follows in Game 4, and he has already handled Milwaukee well in October. In last year’s NLCS, he allowed one run in 5 ⅔ innings against the Brewers, and since joining the Dodgers he owns a 1.73 ERA in the playoffs. If the Dodgers can force deeper into the series, Skubal and Yamamoto are lined up for Games 5 and 6.
And finally, there’s the part you can’t measure cleanly but can’t ignore either: the Dodgers have been here. They are the two-time defending champions.
Their roster has players who know what it takes to survive October pressure. The Brewers, by contrast, were swept by Los Angeles in last year’s NLCS and have never won a World Series or an NL pennant.
If the Dodgers rip off three straight at home and send the series back to Milwaukee with a 3-2 lead, the pressure flips fast. The Brewers have been resilient through the first two games, answering punch for punch, and they’ll need that again to hold off a team that still carries championship muscle.
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