The Brewers’ best shot at hanging with the Dodgers in this NLCS may come down to one left-on-left battle: Aaron Ashby trying to keep Max Muncy from turning a game fast.
Milwaukee and Los Angeles are meeting in the National League Championship Series for the second straight postseason, and the Brewers are looking for a different outcome after getting swept in four games last October. This time, the path to staying alive could hinge on whether the Brewers can keep the Dodgers from stacking up the kind of innings that blow a game open.
That’s what makes Los Angeles so dangerous. The Dodgers don’t just scratch out runs; they can put up crooked numbers in a hurry.
In their wins over the Atlanta Braves, that ability to string together big innings gave them the separation they needed. In their lone loss, they only scored on solo home runs.
For Milwaukee, that matters because the Brewers don’t usually win by matching power with power. They win by grinding through at-bats, piecing together innings, and waiting for the big hit. If they can force the Dodgers into one-run bursts instead of the avalanche innings, they give themselves a chance to keep the series close enough for their own offense to matter.
Muncy is the obvious danger spot. He comes into the NLCS with 19 postseason homers, and the 36-year-old third baseman added three more in the Dodgers’ NLDS win over the Braves. That kind of track record is exactly why Ashby’s role looms so large.
The left-hander has been especially sharp against left-handed hitters. During the regular season, he limited opposing lefties to a .215/.280/.300 slash. Milwaukee needs that kind of production to hold up now, because the Dodgers are about to roll out some of the toughest left-handed bats in the National League.
Ashby’s profile gives the Brewers a fighting chance. He can miss bats, and he also keeps the ball on the ground. His 32.1% whiff rate per swing and 30.3% strikeout rate show the swing-and-miss ability, while his 56.3% ground-ball rate shows how hard it is for hitters to lift him for damage.
That job doesn’t stop with Muncy, either. Like Abner Uribe was asked to do against the Padres in the NLDS, Ashby will have to help neutralize the heart of the order. That means not just Muncy, but also Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker.
Dave Roberts will likely try to keep the Dodgers’ left-handed bats from lining up too neatly. The expectation is that he’ll split them up with Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández, and Hernández can do real damage if Ashby leaves a mistake in the middle of the strike zone.
Milwaukee’s back-end plan is set with Trevor Megill as the ninth-inning stopper, but the route to get there may shift from game to game. Ashby could end up being asked to carry a heavy load, potentially pitching four, maybe five times if this series lasts longer than last year’s.
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