Kyle Tucker's free agency saga might be nearing its final chapter, and the stakes couldn’t be much higher. With multiple teams in the mix and at least one club reportedly willing to go the distance on a decade-long deal, Tucker’s decision could reshape the outfield landscape for years to come.
Let’s start with what we know: the Mets have made a serious push. According to multiple reports, New York has offered Tucker a four-year contract, potentially worth around $200 million.
That’s a massive short-term deal with an eye-popping average annual value-right in line with how the Mets have operated under owner Steve Cohen. They’re clearly betting on premium talent over long-term commitments, and Tucker fits that mold as a player still in his prime.
Tucker, who turns 29 this weekend, has had a surprisingly quiet market for a player of his caliber-especially considering how quickly stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge came off the board in recent offseasons. But things have picked up in a big way lately, and three teams have emerged as the most serious contenders: the Mets, the Blue Jays, and the Dodgers.
Toronto has reportedly been the most aggressive in terms of contract length. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Blue Jays are the only team so far willing to go as far as 10 years. That kind of long-term commitment is rare, and it signals just how much the Jays value Tucker as a potential franchise cornerstone.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have kept things close to the vest. There hasn’t been much concrete reporting on their pursuit, but it’s worth noting that their front office has been cautious this offseason when it comes to long-term deals-especially with a roster that already skews older and top outfield prospects like Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula waiting in the wings.
As for the Mets, their strategy appears to be about offering Tucker a shorter runway with a much higher annual payout. Earlier reports suggested a three-year deal in the $120-140 million range, and there’s been chatter about offers with a $50 million AAV. The latest update puts the offer at four years, but without a confirmed AAV, it’s possible they’ve structured multiple versions of the deal-each with different incentives, opt-outs, or escalators.
If the Mets really are offering $200 million over four years, that’s a tough number to walk away from. Tucker would hit free agency again before his age-33 season, and recent history shows that kind of second payday isn’t out of reach.
Just look at Kyle Schwarber, who landed a five-year, $150 million deal with the Phillies this winter as a DH-only bat heading into his age-33 season. For Tucker, a four-year deal now could be the first step toward a career earnings total north of $350 million.
Of course, there’s another side to this. Tucker is the kind of player who could absolutely justify a massive long-term deal right now.
He’s been an All-Star four years running, finished fifth in AL MVP voting in 2023, and has put up elite production when healthy. Over his last 214 games, he’s slashed .274/.388/.507 with a 152 wRC+ and nearly 9.2 bWAR.
That’s superstar-level output.
Injuries and a tough second half with the Cubs last season may have cooled some teams’ enthusiasm, but the upside is still there. He’s a middle-of-the-order force in his prime, and if a team like Toronto is willing to lock him up for 10 years, it’s easy to see why.
The big question now is what Tucker values more: the long-term security of a decade-long deal, or the flexibility and potentially higher lifetime earnings of a shorter, high-AAV contract. It’s a classic risk vs. reward scenario.
A long-term pact in the range of, say, Bryce Harper’s $330 million deal with the Phillies would offer stability. But if Tucker believes in his ability to stay healthy and productive, a shorter deal with opt-outs could set him up for multiple massive paydays.
One thing is clear: the clock is ticking. Multiple reports suggest a decision could come any day now-possibly even today. With teams making their final pitches and Tucker weighing his options, we’re likely on the verge of a major free agency domino falling.
Wherever he lands, Kyle Tucker’s next contract is going to make waves. Whether it's a decade in Toronto, a four-year megadeal in Queens, or a surprise move to L.A., one of baseball’s premier outfielders is about to find his new home-and reshape the market in the process.