The restricted free-agent market is mostly settled, but three notable names are still hanging out there: Jalen Duren, Bennedict Mathurin and Peyton Watson.
Watson’s situation could be the first domino to fall. The Nuggets still have a decision to make on Spencer Jones’ two-year offer sheet, and later tonight they’ll learn whether they keep him by matching or let him head to the Thunder. If Denver does match Jones’ reported two-year, $12MM deal and then re-sign Watson to a contract that starts at $23MM in 2026/27, Bobby Marks of ESPN said the team’s projected payroll would land at $246MM, with an estimated luxury tax bill of $231MM.
That kind of number would push Denver past the second tax apron, set at $221.7MM, which brings its own roster-building restrictions. But the bigger issue, at least from an ownership standpoint, is the tax bill itself. Marks also noted that the Nuggets have already paid $53MM in tax penalties since 2002/03.
Even with that financial squeeze, Tony Jones of The Athletic reported on July 17 that Denver feels good about its chances of keeping Watson, whom the team values “significantly.” The Nuggets are comfortable letting the process unfold, and that can take time. In 2025, four of the top restricted free agents stayed unsigned until September when no cap-space team stepped in with an offer sheet.
Watson has drawn interest from the Bucks, Clippers and Hawks, but all three teams are over the cap, so a sign-and-trade would almost certainly be required. One report on Watson said the Clippers were focusing on him ahead of Mathurin, though Denver’s asking price in sign-and-trade talks was described as steep enough that Los Angeles could shift its attention back to re-signing Mathurin. As of now, Mathurin hasn’t been linked to any rival teams.
His situation may also be tied to the NBA’s investigation into the Clippers over an alleged salary-cap circumvention involving a no-show endorsement deal with Kawhi Leonard. The trade sending the two-time Finals MVP back to Toronto is also waiting on the outcome of that probe.
Duren, meanwhile, entered free agency with the strongest profile of the group. He was No. 1 on our list of the top 50 free agents, met with the Lakers and Kings on sign-and-trade possibilities soon after free agency opened, and then watched the Lakers acquire Walker Kessler in a sign-and-trade with Utah. Detroit, according to reports, isn’t interested in Kings big man Domantas Sabonis or any other sign-and-trade framework.
The 23-year-old won’t turn 23 until November, but his résumé is already loaded from last season. He made his first All-Star team, finished second in Most Improved Player voting and earned All-NBA third-team honors after establishing himself as the second-best player on a 60-win team. That All-NBA selection made him eligible for a max deal starting at 30% of the salary cap rather than 25%.
Even so, the Pistons reportedly haven’t put a 25% max on the table, much less a 30% one. And because no rival team has the cap room to sign him to an offer sheet Detroit could match, Duren’s leverage has been limited.
His main card to play is the qualifying offer worth $9.6MM, which would let him hit unrestricted free agency next year. That would be a gamble, since it would mean passing on what should be a rich deal from Detroit, but it remains on the table if talks go sideways.
For what it’s worth, The Athletic asked 13 rival executives whether a four- or five-year deal at 25% max would be “fair” value for Duren, and none said yes. The answer might look very different if the same question were put to 13 agents instead.
In Other News...
Clippers Linked To Four Team Trade That Could Fix Their Wing Depth
A speculative four-team trade idea making the rounds would give the Clippers a very different look on the wing, with Bleacher Reports Greg Swartz floating a deal that sends Peyton Watson to Cleveland in a sign-and-trade with Denver and moves Dennis Schroder to Detroit. For Los Angeles, the appeal is straightforward: the proposal would bring in Max Strus and Cameron Johnson, two players who could help address a roster need that has lingered as the team looks for more reliable depth on the perimeter.
The broader framework would also send draft picks and veteran role players back to Denver, giving the Nuggets a fuller return while tying the whole concept together financially. It is still only a hypothetical, not an official transaction, but the structure is the kind of multi-team machinery that can make sense on paper for a Clippers club trying to balance fit, depth and cost as it keeps exploring ways to strengthen the roster. [Read more 🡒]
Bennedict Mathurin Just Reached A Clippers Crossroads That Could Get Awkward
Bennedict Mathurins restricted free agency has put the Clippers in a familiar spot, balancing the urge to keep talent with the reality of a tight payroll. The qualifying offer on the table is worth $8.8 million, and for a player still trying to establish his long-term market, the short-term security could come with a bigger opportunity attached.
For Mathurin, the cleanest path may be to take that deal, bet on himself for another season and try to reach unrestricted free agency next summer with more leverage. The Clippers, meanwhile, are in no hurry to rush into a larger commitment, preferring to see more of him in their system before deciding whether he is worth a more significant investment. [Read more 🡒]
Sixers Just Found Another Way To Stay Dangerous In The East
The Clippers picked up some extra draft capital and a young forward in a small but useful transaction with Philadelphia, a reminder that even the quieter moves around the margins can matter for a team trying to keep its roster flexible. For Los Angeles, the deal came with a second-round pick attached, and it fits the kind of low-risk, asset-building approach that can pay off later even if it does not change the rotation right away.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, used the trade to keep its books in order after loading up on major talent, opening a roster spot and preserving the cap room it needed to stay below the first apron. The maneuver helped the Sixers bring in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope while still managing the rest of a crowded financial picture, which is the sort of housekeeping that can decide how far a contender can keep pushing. [Read more 🡒]