Chiefs’ Playoff Hopes Hang by a Thread - But the Door’s Not Shut Yet
The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t mathematically out of the playoff race just yet - but let’s not sugarcoat it: they’re hanging on by the thinnest of threads.
At 11% according to NFL.com’s projections, their postseason chances are barely flickering. And with just four games left, they’ll need more than just a strong finish - they’ll need help.
The good news? They’ve got a path, albeit a narrow one.
The better news? They’ve got Patrick Mahomes.
AFC Picture: The Math Isn’t Pretty
Let’s start with the standings. The Los Angeles Chargers currently hold a three-game lead over the Chiefs in the AFC West.
That alone makes the division title a long shot. As for the Wild Card race, Kansas City sits two games back of both the Colts and Texans - the current holders of the final two playoff spots in the AFC.
The real kicker? The Chiefs have a worse record in conference play than both those teams, which likely puts them on the wrong side of any tiebreaker scenario. So even if they match records, they’d still be watching January football from home.
Colts’ Quarterback Situation Could Shift the Race
Here’s where things get interesting. The Colts are turning to 44-year-old Philip Rivers to guide them through the final stretch.
Yes, that Philip Rivers - the one who last threw a professional pass in 2020. It’s a bold move, and it comes at a critical time.
Indy’s final four games are a gauntlet: Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans. That’s two playoff contenders, a division rival, and a Texans team still fighting for a spot themselves.
If Rivers can’t shake off the rust - and fast - the Colts could stumble down the stretch. An 0-4 finish isn’t out of the question, and that could open the door just enough for Kansas City to sneak in.
Chiefs’ Remaining Schedule Sets the Stage
Kansas City’s final four games are manageable - not easy, but manageable. They’ll face the Chargers, Titans, Broncos, and Raiders.
Tennessee and Las Vegas are both struggling, and Denver could be out of the playoff mix by Week 17. That leaves this Sunday’s matchup against the Chargers as the pivotal moment.
Go 3-1, and the Chiefs give themselves a shot. Run the table at 4-0, and suddenly that 11% chance starts to feel a lot more real.
Sunday’s Game: Everything’s on the Line
This week’s showdown with the Chargers is the kind of game that defines seasons. For L.A., it’s a chance to tighten their grip on the division. For Kansas City, it’s do-or-die.
The Chargers are limping into Arrowhead with some serious protection issues. Losing both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for the season has left Justin Herbert exposed - and it showed Monday night. The Eagles, who blitz at a relatively conservative rate (just 20%), had no trouble generating pressure and disrupting Herbert’s rhythm.
Now enter the Chiefs, who blitz over 30% of the time - sixth-most in the league. Expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to dial up the heat. If Kansas City’s pass rushers can collapse the pocket and force Herbert into quick decisions, they’ve got a real shot at swinging this game in their favor.
Run Defense and Turnover Troubles
Kansas City’s run defense has been serviceable - not elite, but solid enough. The bigger issue?
They just haven’t been forcing turnovers. And that’s where the Chargers may look to exploit them.
Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles leans heavily on their ground game, turning to rookie backs Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton to carry the load. The idea is simple: keep Herbert upright, control the tempo, and limit the Chiefs’ offensive possessions. It’s a smart strategy - if it works.
But if the Chiefs can flip the script, force a fumble or snag a pick, and get Mahomes back on the field with good field position, things could turn quickly.
Final Word
The Chiefs are down, but they’re not out. Not yet.
This Sunday’s matchup is more than just a divisional clash - it’s a last stand. Mahomes, Kelce, and the rest of this battle-tested roster know what’s at stake.
Win, and the dream stays alive. Lose, and the lights go out on a season that’s been anything but typical in Kansas City.