Sorting out the AFC West quarterbacks in 2026 is a messy job, and that’s exactly what makes it interesting. This division gives you four very different answers depending on what you value most: championships, regular-season production, recent team success, or raw upside.
If you start with résumé, Patrick Mahomes is the obvious name. If you lean into the Broncos’ two-year run, Bo Nix gets the nod.
If you care most about what happens from September through January in the regular season, Justin Herbert makes a strong case. And tucked into the mix is a Raiders situation that could get even more complicated if Fernando Mendoza hits.
Here’s how the division stacks up, worst to best, heading into 2026.
Kirk Cousins lands at the bottom with the Raiders, and that’s the easiest call on the board. He’s in Las Vegas as a bridge quarterback to Fernando Mendoza, which is exactly how the Raiders are treating him.
Cousins showed some decent football late last season with the Falcons and brings plenty of familiarity with the system Klint Kubiak is expected to run, but the physical and athletic limitations are harder to ignore now. He’s thrown 21 interceptions in his last 24 games and has 16 total fumbles.
He did clean things up quite a bit last year, but the last time he entered a season as the starter, it didn’t go well. The setup in Las Vegas is interesting - an elite tight end, a future star at running back, and not much at wide receiver - but this could be the final year of his NFL starting career for the artist formerly known as Kirko Chainz.
Justin Herbert comes next, and this is where the debate gets heated. On pure talent, he might be the best quarterback in the division, maybe even by a comfortable margin.
Since arriving in the league in 2020 out of Oregon, Herbert has averaged more than 4,400 yards per 17 games played and has thrown at least 23 touchdown passes in three of the last four seasons. He can escape the pocket, extend plays, and rip off throws on the move that most quarterbacks simply can’t make.
The issue is what happens when the games get bigger. Herbert’s playoff track record has been rough: three postseason appearances, three quick exits, despite the Chargers having one of the league’s best defenses, especially over the last two seasons.
He threw four interceptions in a playoff loss to the Texans two seasons ago, then failed to get into the end zone against New England last year. The arm talent is undeniable, but the January results keep dragging the conversation back to him.
Bo Nix takes the No. 2 spot, and that placement depends on how much weight you give Denver’s team success. Some people still see him as one of the worst quarterbacks in football, and that skepticism was loud when Sean Payton and the Broncos took him 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
But the Broncos have won 24 games over the past two seasons, and Nix became the second Broncos quarterback drafted by the team to win a playoff game last year, joining Tim Tebow. He helped get Denver to the postseason as a rookie and then led the Broncos to a win over the Bills in the playoffs before a fractured ankle ended his run.
The Broncos’ offense has had its ugly stretches, and Nix still needs to become a more efficient passer, but he’s already shown he can steer the team when it matters. He’s also the youngest and least experienced quarterback on this list.
Nix is one of only three quarterbacks - along with Herbert and Peyton Manning - to post at least 3,500 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. He has already put together 11 game-winning drives for Denver.
Patrick Mahomes remains No. 1, even with a dip in statistical production and efficiency over the past two seasons and even while working his way back from a major knee injury. He’s still the most dangerous quarterback in the AFC West.
Mahomes on one good leg is still probably better than most quarterbacks in the NFL. That line lands because the career behind it is so stacked.
He has repeatedly delivered in the biggest moments, and that reputation is built on years of proof. The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been as dynamic in the regular season over the last three years, and Mahomes has drifted to a different level statistically, but he’s still the same force when the situation gets tight.
Beating him takes four quarters of a defense’s absolute best. Even coming off a down year and still in recovery from the knee injury, Mahomes is the standard at quarterback.
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