Justin Herbert’s Year 7: Can the Chargers’ Star Finally Break Through?
Justin Herbert is heading into his seventh NFL season, and while the numbers he’s put up so far are nothing short of elite, the postseason success just hasn’t followed. He’s got the arm, the poise, the production - but zero playoff wins to show for it.
Part of that has to do with playing in the same division as Patrick Mahomes, who’s been the immovable object in the AFC West. But heading into 2026, there’s a growing sense that this could be the year Herbert makes his biggest leap yet - and history might just be on his side.
Year Seven: A Quarterback Milestone
There’s something about year seven for quarterbacks. It’s a season that’s produced some of the most dominant performances in NFL history.
Peyton Manning, for instance, lit up the league in his seventh year, tossing 49 touchdowns and leading the Colts to 12 wins in just 16 games - a record-setting season at the time. Aaron Rodgers followed a similar script in his own year seven, throwing for 45 touchdowns, going 15-1, and posting a then-unheard-of 122.5 passer rating.
That kind of production doesn’t just happen - it’s the result of experience, system mastery, and a roster that’s finally built to win.
Dan Marino, another all-time great, posted a 112.4 passer rating in his seventh season back in 1989, leading Miami to the playoffs. More recently, Lamar Jackson exploded in 2024 - his year seven - combining for over 5,000 total yards and 45 touchdowns en route to a first-team All-Pro selection. And let’s not forget Drew Brees, who rewrote the record books in his seventh season by becoming the first quarterback to eclipse 5,000 passing yards in a single year.
These aren’t just good seasons - they’re transformational campaigns that elevated already great quarterbacks into another tier. Herbert has the tools to join that club.
Why This Could Be Herbert’s Moment
So why might 2026 be different for Herbert? For starters, the Chargers are in a much better position to support him than they’ve been in years past.
With cap space to work with and a front office that’s shown signs of urgency, there’s a real opportunity to add firepower around him. That could mean a new wideout on the perimeter or reinforcements along the offensive line - a unit that struggled to keep Herbert upright last season.
In fact, Herbert led the league in scramble yards in 2025, which tells you just how often he was forced to improvise. Give him a clean pocket and a healthy line, and the numbers could go from impressive to downright historic. He’s already proven he can make every throw in the book; now it’s about giving him the time and weapons to do it consistently.
And with Jim Harbaugh now at the helm, the Chargers are trending toward a more balanced, complete team. Harbaugh’s influence has already started to show, especially on defense - a unit that’s quietly become one of the better groups in the league. That kind of complementary football is exactly what quarterbacks need to take the next step.
Stats Are Nice - But Wins Matter More
Of course, gaudy numbers are only part of the equation. For Herbert, the next step isn’t just about lighting up the stat sheet; it’s about winning when it matters most.
That’s where guys like Manning, Brees, and Rodgers eventually separated themselves. While their Super Bowl wins didn’t always come in year seven, the foundation was laid during those breakout seasons.
Marino, for all his brilliance, never got that elusive ring. Jackson is still searching for his first Super Bowl appearance. Herbert has a chance to change that narrative - and he might be better positioned than any of them were at this stage.
When Manning was putting up monster numbers in the early 2000s, he didn’t always have a defense that could hold its own. He also had to go through Tom Brady nearly every year in the AFC.
Herbert’s roadblock is Mahomes, who’s been the standard in the division and the conference. But depending on Mahomes’ health - particularly with lingering knee issues - the door could crack open just enough for Herbert to seize the moment.
The Verdict
Herbert’s career arc has always hinted at greatness. Now, entering year seven, the stars might finally be aligning.
He’s got the experience, the talent, and - potentially - the supporting cast to take that next step. If the Chargers can stay healthy and continue building around their franchise quarterback, 2026 could be the year Herbert goes from stat-sheet superstar to playoff performer.
And if history is any indication, year seven might just be the sweet spot.