Jim Harbaugh’s third Chargers team is about to answer a question that has tripped up the men who came before him: does year three bring growth, or does it bring the floor dropping out?
That pattern is impossible to ignore. Mike McCoy, Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley all opened their Chargers runs with winning seasons, only to watch everything crack in the third year.
Their teams slid to 4-12, 7-9 and 5-11. The programs never bounced back, and the talent around them fell with it.
Veteran coach Andy Reid once described that danger plainly. “Normally, your third year, it fits,” Reid told the Kansas City Star a decade ago. “You kind of establish what you are or what direction you’re going.”
Reid’s next line is the one that sticks.
“It hits you in the head like it’s a baseball bat,” Reid said.
That’s the backdrop for Harbaugh’s third Chargers season, even if general manager Joe Hortiz doesn’t want the comparison made too neatly. When the question came up last month at the University of San Diego, where the team held two days of training camp, Hortiz pushed back hard on the idea that Harbaugh belongs in the same bucket as McCoy, Lynn and Staley.
“This is Jim’s seventh year as an NFL head coach,” Hortiz noted.
“I couldn’t put that together with the previous guys,” he added. “It’s not apples to apples. It’s not apples to oranges.
“I wouldn’t call it apples to steaks.”
There’s reason for the Chargers to feel different about this one. Harbaugh’s track record with the 49ers included a third season that still looked like a Harbaugh team - physical, rugged and hard to handle.
In 2013, his third year in San Francisco, the 49ers reached the NFC Championship Game. They lost 23-17 in Seattle, then watched the Seahawks roll on and beat the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl.
If Harbaugh gets the Chargers to the AFC title game, it would be the franchise’s first trip there since the 2007 season. For now, they enter Sunday as heavy favorites against the Arizona Cardinals in the opener.
Inside the locker room, the belief is obvious. Derwin James Jr. called Harbaugh’s influence foundational.
“He brought us a culture,” said All-Pro safety Derwin James Jr. “To be able to be here in year three with him, it feels good, it feels right.
“I can’t wait for the world to see what we’ve got building up this year.”
Justin Herbert echoed that respect. The quarterback said Harbaugh’s presence changes how the team approaches the work.
“Everyone works harder, wants to fight harder and play harder for him,” Herbert said.
The Chargers have gone 11-6 in each of Harbaugh’s first two seasons, but the playoff results have been sour. Like the earlier Chargers teams under McCoy and Lynn, Harbaugh’s club lost its two postseason games, and the offense was the issue both times.
That’s where the biggest reason for optimism lives now. Harbaugh brought in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator after firing Greg Roman, his former 49ers coordinator, and the hire gives this offense a different ceiling.
McDaniel, 43, spent seven years under Kyle Shanahan and three years under Mike Shanahan, and that background matters. In NFL circles, that system knowledge is premium stuff.
The hope is that McDaniel gets Herbert back to playing on time, which would be a major shift after years of protection issues nudging the quarterback into bad habits. Herbert’s strong seasons have often covered for those tendencies, but they showed up more sharply in the postseason, especially in the loss at New England last January.
NFL analyst J.T. O’Sullivan said Herbert passed on several throws in the first half and third quarter that should have become first downs or touchdowns.
Daniel Jeremiah sees the same fix taking shape.
“McDaniel is going to be huge for Justin Herbert,” NFL analyst Daniel Jeremiah said in an email. “He’s going to bake in some quick, on-time throws with run-after-catch potential.
“He’s a run-game genius, and he’ll dress up play action to work off the run-game success.
“Justin shouldn’t take as much punishment because of this approach.”
This isn’t a foreign formula for the Chargers. Back in 2013, McCoy’s staff used a quick-pass approach that got Philip Rivers back on track after his own bad habits had taken root amid shaky pass protection. Rivers delivered a ball-control offense that led the NFL in yards and plays per drive, while also finishing second in yards per pass attempt.
Hortiz pointed to Thursday night’s showcase from Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense, which ripped the favored Rams in San Francisco’s lopsided win, as a reminder of how dangerous that system can be.
“The (Shanahan) offense, all throughout the league, it’s a tough offense to play against,” Hortiz said.
“Mike knows it better than anybody, and he calls it and implements it better than anybody,” the GM added, likely excluding Shanahan. “And then, just his enthusiasm and ability to connect with everybody - the players, the staff - it’s really neat to see.
“It’s going to be a fun year for us.”
Harbaugh’s side of the ledger has already been strong enough to support that confidence. His Chargers defense has finished first and ninth in the NFL, and special teams has landed in the top half both seasons.
McDaniel said the chance to work for Harbaugh and coach Herbert made the job especially appealing. Herbert, after all, is still the headliner: a 28-year-old quarterback who can thrive with structure but also make plays that few starters can pull off. McDaniel knows that better than most, thanks to the A-plus escape and completion Herbert delivered in beating the Dolphins last year.
“Crushed me, man,” McDaniel said.
“Can’t beat him, join him.”
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