Week 9 gave bettors a pretty clean slate if they were riding the favorites. Out of 15 NFL games, only one ended with an upset, and the Green Bay Packers were the lone team to pull it off against the New England Patriots. One of the three upset-pick writers had Green Bay, so at least somebody saw it coming.
Now the focus shifts to Week 11, and the hope is for a little more chaos on the board. Here are the upset calls for this weekend’s slate.
The first one comes with some skepticism attached to Detroit’s defense. The Lions have won four straight, beating Arizona, Minnesota and Miami along the way, but there’s still a wait-and-see feeling around that side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard earned credit for how his group handled Jordan Love in the Week 7 win over Green Bay, but one strong showing isn’t enough to fully buy into a turnaround yet.
That’s part of why the Patriots are the pick here. Drake Maye has shown a pattern of bouncing back after losses.
New England got blown out by Green Bay last week, but Maye responded with wins over the Steelers in Week 2 and the Bills in Week 4 after earlier defeats. The Dolphins win in Week 8 also came after a loss.
There’s also the fact that the Patriots haven’t dropped two straight games this season.
Detroit’s offense has also cooled off a bit. The Lions have failed to score 21 points in three straight games, which makes this matchup feel a little less comfortable for them than it might have a few weeks ago.
The next upset leans on a team that has only one win in the 2026 season, but has still been hanging around. Miami has covered the spread in four of eight games and has been competitive in a string of recent matchups. Now the Dolphins are underdogs with Kyle McCord set to start against an Indianapolis team that has just two wins and looks like it’s already shifting toward the future after moves made before the trade deadline.
The numbers point to two teams that are pretty close to each other. The Colts are 25th in EPA/Play on defense, while Miami is 28th.
On offense, Indianapolis sits 28th in EPA/Play and the Dolphins are 24th. Even with those rankings, Miami has looked better lately.
That showed up in Week 9, when the Dolphins held Detroit to 19 points. Since the start of October, they’ve had one-possession losses to Minnesota, Cincinnati and New England, and they also beat the New York Jets. Against another struggling opponent, Miami should have a chance to move the ball after having trouble doing that against Detroit.
The Colts, meanwhile, are easy to fade right now. They were blasted 42-7 by Jacksonville in Week 8 and have lost five in a row. Between the recent form and the overall profile, this feels like a spot to go against Indianapolis.
The last upset pick is the one that may feel the most overdue. The Chargers have been a team plenty of bettors have tried to talk themselves into all season with the idea that they had to win or cover eventually. This time, the pick is to back them.
The case starts on defense. The Chargers have been just as good, if not better, than the Ravens on that side of the ball. Their opponent EPA per play numbers are 16th and 17th, and the Chargers are 18th in opponent success rate while the Ravens are 22nd.
On offense, the Chargers have been bad, but the question is whether Baltimore is really in position to take advantage. Jacoby Brissett, an ineffective Derrick Henry, and a bad Ravens receiving core don’t exactly inspire confidence against Justin Herbert and Co.
So after spending most of the season avoiding the Chargers, this is the week to finally take them. The pick is that this is when they get their first win.
In Other News...
Jim Harbaugh Just Turned A Failed Chargers Trade Into AFC West Drama
A quiet roster move turned into a little AFC West theater when the Chargers tried to send linebacker Daiyan Henley to Denver for a fourth- and fifth-round draft pick. The deal had been lined up, but the Broncos backed away after reviewing Henleys medical report and then asked for lesser draft compensation, a change Los Angeles was not willing to accept.
Jim Harbaugh did not hide his frustration with how it unfolded, making the failed trade a public point of irritation for a Chargers team that would have preferred the matter stay behind closed doors. Instead, the episode added another layer to a division rivalry that already has enough edge, with one side believing terms were agreed to and the other deciding the price no longer fit. [Read more 🡒]
Chargers Fans Have Every Reason To Question Joe Hortiz Today
The Chargers entered the trade deadline with a clear chance to start reshaping a roster that has gone nowhere this season, and for a moment it looked like they had at least one move lined up. A deal to send Daiyan Henley to the Broncos for future draft picks was agreed to before it was ultimately canceled, leaving Los Angeles without even that small step toward stockpiling assets.
What followed only sharpened the scrutiny on Joe Hortiz. With the team still winless and in obvious need of a reset, the Chargers made no other significant moves at the deadline, a passivity that has fueled criticism of how the front office handled the day. For a fan base looking for signs of a real rebuild, the silence was almost as loud as the canceled trade. [Read more 🡒]
Chargers LB Daiyan Henley Trade Collapse Leaves One Big Question
The Broncos proposed trade for Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley has fallen apart, leaving a notable ripple in a division that already knows each other too well. The deal had been set to send mid-round draft picks to Los Angeles, but it was still waiting on Henleys physical after he went through the exam at Denvers facility.
With the move off the table, Denver will move ahead with its current linebacker group of Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad. For the Chargers, the collapse leaves one big question hanging over the situation, because a transaction that looked close enough to announce never made it across the finish line. [Read more 🡒]