Cowboys Face Do-or-Die Week 16 Clash vs. Chargers With Playoff Hopes Hanging by a Thread
ARLINGTON, Texas - The Dallas Cowboys are still technically in the playoff hunt, but the road ahead is about as narrow as it gets. Heading into their Week 16 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas sits at 6-7-1 with just a 0.8% chance of making the postseason. That number could hit zero before they even take the field on Sunday.
Here’s the reality: the Cowboys need to win out, and they need the Philadelphia Eagles to lose out. That means Dallas has to win all three of their remaining games and hope the Eagles drop their final three - including two matchups against a 4-10 Washington Commanders squad led by Marcus Mariota. It’s a long shot, and if Philly takes care of business Saturday night, the NFC East is out of reach for Dallas before Sunday kickoff.
But don’t tell Dak Prescott the games don’t matter.
“Yeah, I mean there’s a lot to play for. Obviously pride is number one, but yeah, damn sure don’t want to have a losing season,” Prescott said this week.
“We’ve lost two in a row? Damn sure not trying to lose three.
You’re not throwing the hat in.”
Prescott’s message is clear: this team still has something to prove - to themselves, to the league, and to their fans. And if the locker room energy is any indication, the Cowboys aren’t mailing it in.
“The guys have had a great week of practice, great week of prep,” Prescott added. “They don’t seem like anyone’s clocked out or checked out. That’s a credit to the leadership and the guys in the locker room.”
Meanwhile, the Chargers have much more than pride on the line. At 10-4, they can clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win and either a Texans loss to the Raiders or a Colts loss to the 49ers. Motivation won’t be an issue for Los Angeles.
What to Watch: Cowboys vs. Chargers
Date: Sunday, Dec. 21
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
TV: FOX
Streaming: Fubo
Odds: Cowboys -1.5 | Over/Under: 49.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Key Matchup: Cowboys Pass Rush vs. Chargers Offensive Line
The Chargers’ offensive line has been a revolving door all season, and it’s taken a toll on Justin Herbert. He’s been sacked 49 times - tied for the most in the league - and hit 116 times, more than any other quarterback.
The pressure rate against him? A staggering 41.9%, second-highest in the NFL.
This should be a prime opportunity for Dallas' defense to get home, but that’s been a problem lately. Despite generating pressure at a strong 39.8% clip (ninth-best in the league), the Cowboys are only converting those into sacks 5.8% of the time - the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL.
That lack of finishing could be costly, especially with Pro Bowl cornerback DaRon Bland now sidelined for the rest of the season. Without their top ballhawk, Dallas’ secondary will be stretched thin if Herbert has time to operate.
Running back Javonte Williams put it bluntly this week:
“We’re not playing complementary [football] together. It’s kind of lopsided sometimes.
We let too much go on defense, so we don’t make enough plays on offense. It’s always like we’re trying to come back in the end.”
He’s not wrong. If Dallas wants to stay alive, they’ll need a full 60-minute effort - not just a late push.
Prescott’s Historic Season Meets a Fierce Chargers Front
Despite the team’s inconsistencies, Dak Prescott is quietly putting together a historic campaign. He’s currently on pace to lead the NFL in passing yards - something no Cowboys quarterback has ever done. And he’s doing it while directing the league’s fourth-highest scoring offense at 29.1 points per game.
He’s had plenty of help from a dynamic receiving duo in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but this week’s test is a different beast. The Chargers' pass rush is no joke. They’ve racked up 40 sacks this season (sixth-most in the league), and edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu has emerged as a force with 12.0 sacks - tied for fifth in the NFL - including four in his last three games.
That pressure up front feeds into a ball-hawking secondary led by All-Pro safety Derwin James. Since Week 8, the Chargers have snagged 11 interceptions - the most in the league over that span - and they’ve won six of their last seven games in the process.
And here’s where it gets tricky for Dallas: the offensive line has been shaky. Terence Steele has allowed a league-high 40 pressures, and rookie Nate Thomas - filling in at left tackle for the injured Tyler Guyton - has given up 13 pressures and two sacks in his four starts. That’s not the kind of protection you want against a surging pass rush.
Prescott knows what he’s up against:
“It starts with Khalil [Mack] and the rest of the guys up front, getting to the quarterback. You watch the film - guys are getting hit as the ball’s going in the air.
That’s why you see all different guys making plays on the ball. It’s a team thing.”
Can George Pickens Get Back on Track?
George Pickens has been one of the NFL’s most productive receivers this season - top 10 in nearly every major category - but he’s been quiet lately. Over the last two games, both losses, he’s totaled just 67 receiving yards.
The Cowboys are looking to move him around the formation more to avoid double teams, but Prescott said it’s also on the rest of the offense to force defenses to play them straight up.
“Just play through it, for one, on his end,” Prescott said. “Even if they’ve got two guys on, you’ll take those two out of there and be the sacrifice at times. But other guys have to step up.”
Here’s where Pickens stands in 2025:
| Stat | Total | NFL Rank |
|---|
| Catches | 81 | 8th | | Receiving Yards | 1,212 | 3rd |
| Receiving TDs | 8 | T-7th | | First Downs | 64 | 3rd |
| 25+ Yard Catches | 11 | T-5th |
If Pickens gets going again, it could open everything up - for Lamb, for the run game, and for Prescott to do what he does best: pick defenses apart.
Prediction: Chargers 27, Cowboys 24
This one’s shaping up to be a battle of strengths and weaknesses. The Chargers’ pass rush could be just disruptive enough to knock Prescott off rhythm, while the Cowboys may struggle to capitalize on a vulnerable Chargers O-line. If Dallas can’t finish their pressures with sacks - and protect their own quarterback - it could be another frustrating afternoon in Arlington.
The Chargers are playing for a playoff berth. The Cowboys are playing for pride.
Sometimes, that’s enough. But this time, it might not be.