AFC Playoff Picture Comes Into Focus as Bills, Chargers, Jaguars Clinch Spots
The Indianapolis Colts couldn’t play spoiler on Monday night, and their 48-27 loss to the San Francisco 49ers sent ripple effects across the AFC. With that result, three teams officially punched their tickets to the postseason: the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and Jacksonville Jaguars. The playoff race is heating up, and these three squads now have a seat at the table.
Let’s break down how they got there - and what it all means moving forward.
Buffalo Survives, Clinches Despite Late Drama
The Bills did their part on Sunday, edging out a 23-20 win over the Cleveland Browns in a game that saw quarterback Josh Allen head to the locker room for halftime X-rays on his foot. But in true Allen fashion, he returned to finish the job - a gritty, gutsy effort that’s become his trademark.
Buffalo needed either the Texans or Colts to lose or tie to clinch, and while Houston staged a comeback win over the Raiders to delay the celebration, the Colts’ Monday night collapse sealed it. Allen and the Bills are now postseason-bound for the seventh straight year.
Still, the path forward isn’t without obstacles. Buffalo trails the Patriots by a game in the AFC East, and if they can’t catch New England, they’ll have to navigate the playoffs as a wild card. That means potentially three road games to reach the Super Bowl - a brutal gauntlet, especially for a defense that’s shown some cracks.
The offense has leaned heavily on Allen’s playmaking, but the supporting cast has been shaky. James Cook is in the thick of the rushing title race, but when defenses key in on him and force Allen to win with a receiving corps that’s been largely invisible, the Bills have struggled.
If they’re going to make a deep run, someone in that wideout room needs to step up. Because as talented as Allen is, even an MVP can’t do it all alone.
Chargers Thrive Through Adversity Under Harbaugh
This has been a season of resilience for the Chargers - and Jim Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit. In his first year back in the NFL, Harbaugh has led L.A. to back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since the late 2000s. And he’s done it while navigating a minefield of injuries.
The offensive line has been a revolving door. The Chargers lost both starting tackles - Rashawn Slater in training camp and Joe Alt in Week 9.
They’ve used 22 different offensive line combinations this season. Running back Najee Harris tore his Achilles in Week 3.
Rookie first-rounder Omarion Hampton missed significant time. Even Khalil Mack spent time on injured reserve.
Most teams would have folded. Harbaugh’s Chargers? They just kept winning.
Their 34-17 win over the Cowboys was a statement - a second-half clinic that showed this team is peaking at the right time. Harbaugh has already matched last year’s win total with two games to play, and if the Chargers win out, they’ll take the AFC West for the first time since 2009. That Week 18 clash with the Broncos looms large.
This isn’t just a playoff team. It’s a team that believes it can do damage once it gets there.
Jaguars Back in the Dance - and Maybe More
First-year head coach Liam Coen has the Jaguars back in the postseason for the first time since 2022, and they’re not just sneaking in - they’re surging. Jacksonville snapped Denver’s 11-game win streak with a 34-20 road win that turned heads around the league.
Since Week 9, the Jaguars are averaging 33 points per game - second-best in the NFL over that span. Trevor Lawrence is playing confident, efficient football, throwing 12 touchdowns and rushing for two more over the last four games. He’s completing over 60 percent of his passes and looks fully in command of Coen’s offense.
The Jags are 5-3 against current playoff teams, and they’ve got a real shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed. They’ll need to win their final two games (Colts and Titans) and hope both the Broncos and Patriots stumble once. It’s a long shot, but not out of the question.
More realistically, Jacksonville controls its destiny in the AFC South. Two wins - or two Texans losses - will lock up the division. But Houston holds the tiebreaker, so there’s no margin for error.
This is a young, explosive team that’s learning how to win in big moments. And if they keep trending upward, they could be a dangerous out come January.
Where Things Stand in the AFC
With five of the seven playoff spots now locked up - Broncos, Patriots, Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars - the race is down to two remaining slots. Here’s how the rest of the picture looks:
- AFC West: The Broncos (12-3) lead the Chargers (11-4) by one game. Their Week 18 meeting in Denver could decide the division.
- AFC East: The Patriots (12-3) are one game up on the Bills (11-4), with the division still up for grabs.
- AFC South: The Jaguars (11-4) lead the Texans (10-5) by a game.
The Colts (8-7) are out of the division race and hanging onto slim wild-card hopes.
- AFC North: The Steelers (9-6) can clinch the division this week with a win or a Ravens (7-8) loss.
Baltimore is out of wild-card contention, so it’s division title or bust.
For the Colts to sneak into the playoffs, they need a miracle: two wins, a Texans loss to the Chargers, and a favorable strength-of-victory tiebreaker. Not impossible, but they’ll need a lot to break their way.
Bottom Line
The AFC playoff picture is starting to crystallize, but there’s still plenty of drama left. The Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars have clinched, but their seeding - and their road to the Super Bowl - is far from settled.
With two weeks to go, division titles are on the line, wild-card spots are in play, and matchups with massive implications are coming fast. Buckle up - the AFC race is just getting good.