Chargers Surge into Playoffs with Eyes on AFC West Crown - and Maybe More
The Los Angeles Chargers are heating up at the right time, and if you ask quarterback Justin Herbert, he’ll put it simply - quoting head coach Jim Harbaugh: “We’re in position to be in a position.” That’s a pretty good place to be in December.
With a 34-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, the Chargers extended their winning streak to four and have now taken seven of their last eight. That kind of momentum has them not only locked into the playoff picture - officially clinched thanks to the Colts’ loss to the 49ers - but also staring down a legitimate shot at their first AFC West title since 2009.
Let that sink in: the Chargers haven’t worn the AFC West crown since LaDainian Tomlinson was taking handoffs. Now, with two games left - at home against the Houston Texans and on the road at Denver in Week 18 - the Chargers control their own destiny.
Win both, and they finish 13-4. Denver, even if they also win their next game, would be 13-4 too - but the Chargers would take the division based on a clean 2-0 sweep of the Broncos and a perfect 6-0 mark in the division.
As Harbaugh put it earlier this week: “Pretty simple to look at and not hard math to figure.”
History in the Making
If the Chargers do run the table, they’d complete their first undefeated season in the division since 1961. That’s not just a footnote - it’s a statement. Especially considering the Kansas City Chiefs had owned the AFC West for nearly a decade, winning nine straight division titles before the Chargers knocked them out of playoff contention in Week 15.
Taking the division would be a massive feather in Harbaugh’s cap during his first season back in the NFL. It’s the kind of turnaround that validates a bold coaching hire and re-energizes a franchise that’s long been searching for consistency.
The No. 1 Seed: A Long Shot, But Still Alive
Now, let’s talk about the top seed in the AFC. The odds aren’t exactly in the Chargers’ favor - they’re sitting at around 3% - but the path is there. It’s narrow, sure, but not impossible.
Here’s what needs to happen:
- **The Chargers must win out. ** That’s non-negotiable.
Two more wins, and they’re 13-4.
- **The Patriots need to lose at least once.
** New England is 12-3 after a big win over Baltimore and closes the season against the Jets and Dolphins - two teams already eliminated. If the Patriots finish 13-4, the Chargers would hold the tiebreaker based on a superior conference record (10-2 vs.
8-4).
- **The Jaguars need to drop one.
** Jacksonville has two very winnable games left - at the Colts and home against the Titans. But if they slip, and the Chargers win out, L.A. could leapfrog them too.
If both finish 13-4, the Jaguars get the edge thanks to their Week 11 win over the Chargers - a game that might come back to haunt Los Angeles in the seeding race.
There’s also the Buffalo Bills to consider. If the Chargers win out, they’d finish with a better conference record than Buffalo, who already has three AFC losses. That would give the Chargers the tiebreaker there, too.
Bottom line: the Chargers need help, but they’re not out of the race for the top spot just yet.
Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars - Who’s Got the Edge?
Right now, the Broncos hold the inside track to the No. 1 seed. They’ve got the best odds, sitting at around 48%, thanks in part to a key tiebreaker over the Patriots.
Denver faces a depleted Chiefs team on Christmas, and if they win out, they finish 14-3. If the Patriots also win out, both teams would be tied at 14-3 with identical 9-3 conference records - but Denver would get the edge based on common games.
That’s where the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Raiders looms large.
New England’s odds sit at about 38%. Jacksonville, riding a six-game winning streak, is right in the mix too.
But the Chargers? They’re the long shot with a puncher’s chance. And given how they’ve responded to adversity this season - battling through injuries and finding their rhythm late - that’s not a spot they’ll shy away from.
Saturday vs. Houston: A Must-Win, and Then Some
Before they can think about seeding scenarios or playoff matchups, the Chargers have one very important task: take care of business against the Houston Texans.
This isn’t just another game. It’s a chance at redemption.
The Texans embarrassed the Chargers in the playoffs last year, and you can bet that memory is still fresh in the locker room. Harbaugh isn’t downplaying it either: *“This game Saturday against the Texans is the most important game of the year.”
And he’s not wrong. The Texans bring one of the league’s top defenses to SoFi Stadium, and they’ve been a tough out all season. The Chargers’ offense found its groove against a struggling Cowboys defense last week - but now they’ll face a much stiffer test.
After that, it’s on to Denver for what could be a winner-take-all showdown in Week 18.
Staying Grounded, Staying Dangerous
For all the playoff math and tiebreaker talk, the Chargers are keeping things simple inside the building.
“You can say it’s a good position to be in,” said edge rusher Khalil Mack, “but ultimately, we’re only focused on the group of guys we got in the locker room. We’re not worried about the outside noise. Not getting too high, not getting too low, staying even-keeled and trying to stack wins.”
That’s the mindset of a team that knows how quickly things can change in this league. But it’s also the mindset of a team that believes it can keep winning - and maybe make some serious noise in January.
For now, the Chargers are in position. And with two weeks to go, they’ve got everything to play for.