Week 2 gives bettors a full board, and the card has a little bit of everything: a favorite, an underdog, and a total that stands out right away.
The cleanest play on the board might be Raiders-Chargers, where the total sits at 43.5 even though both defenses have already shown cracks. The Bears’ Week 1 blowout win has also created what looks like an overreaction spot in their NFC North matchup with the Vikings.
Chicago piled up 59 points, but the numbers still weren’t pretty. The Bears finished 15th in Net Yards per Play at 0.2, with the defense doing plenty of the damage.
They were 22nd in opponent EPA per play and 20th in opponent success rate.
That’s why the argument here is to look past the scoreboard and at what actually happened underneath it. Defense still matters, and the source points to last season’s Cowboys as the reminder: a top-three offense and no playoff berth.
The Chargers, meanwhile, bring their own defensive issues into the week. After losing their defensive coordinator a year ago, Jesse Minter, who is now the head coach in Baltimore, there were questions about how that side of the ball would hold up.
Week 1 did nothing to calm them. Los Angeles lost to the Arizona Cardinals and now sits 27th in defensive DVOA, 23rd in opponent EPA per play, and 25th in defensive success rate.
That’s why the low-40s number feels off, especially with the Raiders’ offense described as competent with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Ashton Jeanty starting to find his rhythm behind an improved offensive line.
There’s also a Sunday night angle worth backing. In the Chiefs-Colts game, the pick is Kansas City to win and cover.
The case starts with the idea that the Chiefs might be all the way back. Eric Bieniemy’s return as offensive coordinator is framed as a key move, Patrick Mahomes is said to look healthy, and the backfield tandem of Kenneth Walker and Emmett Johnson got off to a fast start.
The Colts are carrying the opposite kind of momentum. Their defense looked atrocious against the Ravens, and Daniel Jones’ lack of mobility suggests he may still be dealing with a nagging injury that is limiting what he can do best. The read here is simple: Kansas City runs away with it.
In Other News...
Chargers Already Have A Worrying Akheem Mesidor Problem
The Chargers went into the season needing answers on both sides of the trenches, and the early returns have not made life easier. Their offensive line is still being tested, and the pass rush has not consistently provided the kind of pressure that can cover for other issues on defense. That backdrop has made rookie Akheem Mesidor a particularly important player to watch, since he was brought in to help fill the role vacated by Odafe Oweh in the rotation.
Through Week 1, Mesidor has not yet delivered the kind of impact the Chargers were hoping for, which only adds to the concern around a defense trying to find its footing. The coaching staff still has time to get more out of him, and the need is obvious if the team wants to avoid digging an early hole. For now, the question is whether Mesidor can settle in quickly enough to become part of the solution rather than another reason for worry. [Read more 🡒]
Chargers Left Guard Problem Is About To Get A Real Answer
Trey Pipkins is set to miss the Chargers upcoming game with a knee injury, and that leaves Kayode Awosika in line to handle left guard for the full contest. The move gives Los Angeles something it has not had there this season: a clean look at one player instead of the back-and-forth rotation the staff had been using.
The split duties drew criticism because it cut into the offensive lines continuity, a particularly important issue for a unit trying to settle in early. Awosika also entered the conversation with some momentum after initial Pro Football Focus data in the season opener showed him grading better than Pipkins, so this weeks snap count should go a long way toward clarifying the Chargers best answer at the spot. [Read more 🡒]
Chargers O-Line Shuffle Is Exposing A Bigger Problem Than Harbaugh Wanted
The Chargers are still trying to sort out the interior of their offensive line, and the picture at left guard has already changed again by Week 2. Jim Harbaugh has moved away from a rotation there, but the answers have not come easily, with Trey Pipkins among the players asked to step in while the group deals with injuries and a lack of settled roles.
The bigger issue is what all of this says about the line as a whole. With center Tyler Biadasz sidelined and rookie Jake Slaughter starting at left guard, the Chargers are leaning on combinations that raise real questions about fit, experience and continuity. It is the sort of early-season instability that can linger long after the lineup card changes. [Read more 🡒]