The Chargers are heading into 2026 with real momentum, but the number hanging over them is still a modest one: 9.5 wins.
That line comes after two straight seasons under Jim Harbaugh that looked almost like carbon copies of each other. Los Angeles went 11-6 both times, reached the wild card, and then ran into a wall in the opening round - a 32-12 loss to the Texans in 2024 followed by a 16-3 defeat against the Patriots.
Now the question is whether the Chargers can finally turn those back-to-back solid seasons into something bigger. The oddsmakers are leaning toward yes, setting the over/under at 9.5 for 2026 and pricing the OVER at -140. That implies a 58.33% chance the Chargers finish 10-7 or better.
What makes the outlook so interesting is that the biggest offseason move wasn’t a player addition. It was the hire of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator.
The source of the Chargers’ problems in the Harbaugh era has been offensive scheme and play-calling, and McDaniel brings a reputation as one of the league’s sharper offensive minds. He may not have fit the head coach job, at least not yet, but the creativity and play-calling are not in question.
He also steps into a situation with plenty of weapons and one of the league’s best young quarterbacks in place.
Los Angeles also gave Herbert another dependable target by bringing in tight end David Njoku. He had a strong run in Cleveland with the Browns since 2017, even without consistent quarterback play to lean on.
Health may end up deciding everything. The Chargers’ ceiling took a hit when both starting tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, went down with injuries. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton also dealt with an injury that cost him eight games.
If the Chargers can stay on the field and McDaniel can get the offense humming around Herbert, the path is there for a big year. The Broncos are expected to take a step back, and the Chiefs are coming off what the source describes as a disastrous 2025 season, which opens the door for Los Angeles in the AFC West.
That’s why the over looks attractive here, and why the more aggressive play - over 10.5 at +130 - is also on the table.
In Other News...
Chargers Leave Ugly Loss With Two Bigger Problems Than The Score
The Chargers preseason loss to the 49ers was messy enough on the scoreboard, but the bigger concern came from everything around it. Penalties, missed assignments and an offense that never found much rhythm made it a rough night for a team still trying to set its tone under Jim Harbaugh, and the coach did not hide from the fact that the details were not good enough.
Tyler Biadaszs left ACL injury only adds to the unease, because the center spot now has to be reworked on the fly. Rookie Jake Slaughter is expected to slide into the starting job, while Harbaugh also has an unsettled backup quarterback battle still hanging over the roster, leaving the Chargers with more to sort out than a lopsided preseason score. [Read more 🡒]
Chargers Roster Battle Took A Harsh Turn In Preseason Loss
The preseason trip against the 49ers was less about the final score than the Chargers ongoing roster audit, and several players made cases for themselves in live action. Junior Colson stood out on defense with an interception and multiple tackles, Devin Grant also came away with a pick, and Gregory Desrosiers led the running backs in rushing yards, all of it the kind of production that can matter when coaches start narrowing down jobs.
Not every audition went smoothly, though, and Devonte Ross had a rough moment when a muffed punt undercut his chance to build momentum. In a game designed to sort out the back end of the roster, those kinds of mistakes can linger just as long as the highlights, which is why the Chargers will likely spend as much time studying the errors as the takeaways from a night that brought clarity to some spots and more pressure to others. [Read more 🡒]
49ers Leave Chargers Game With A Bigger Concern Than The Score
A preseason game can fade quickly once the result is in the books, and Sundays matchup in Los Angeles felt like one of those nights for the 49ers. They left with a win over the Chargers, but the bigger concern was the list of players who were banged up along the way, including offensive lineman Austen Pleasants, cornerback Renardo Green and linebacker Nick Martin, all of whom exited with injuries.
Kyle Shanahan said Pleasants knee injury is not an ACL tear, while Green and Martin are still waiting on more imaging after hamstring issues. Left guard Robert Jones is also dealing with an unspecified injury that could affect his availability for the next game, giving San Francisco plenty to monitor even as the preseason calendar keeps moving. [Read more 🡒]