The AFC West is gearing up for a heavyweight clash in 2026, and it’s not just the usual Kansas City coronation. This time, it’s a three-team race: the Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs all have a legitimate shot at the crown. With Justin Herbert continuing to lead the charge in Los Angeles and Patrick Mahomes looming in Kansas City, the battle for the West is shaping up to be one of the most compelling storylines in the league.
Let’s start with the Chargers, because this is no longer a team “on the rise” - they’re here. After finishing second in the division in 2025, just behind Denver, it’s clear that the rebuilding phase is over.
This is a team built to win now, and 2026 feels like a pivotal season. Either they take control of the division, or they risk watching it slip into someone else’s hands.
Denver, for their part, took the AFC West last season. But there’s one stat that should make Chargers fans sit up a little straighter: Justin Herbert has never lost to Bo Nix.
That’s not just trivia - that’s a trend. In a division where quarterback play often decides the outcome, Herbert’s dominance in that matchup matters.
Denver’s defense is no joke - physical, disciplined, and well-coached - but they haven’t found the answer to Herbert. Until they do, the edge in that matchup leans toward the Chargers.
That’s not to say the Broncos aren’t a threat. They absolutely are.
This is a team that’s closed the gap with smart coaching and a tough, fundamentally sound brand of football. But from the Chargers’ perspective, there’s no reason to be intimidated.
Herbert gives them confidence - and in divisional play, that confidence is everything.
Now, let’s talk about the wild card in all of this: Kansas City.
The Chiefs haven’t gone anywhere. They’ve just been biding their time.
If Patrick Mahomes is back to full health in 2026, the entire dynamic of the division shifts. We’ve seen what Mahomes can do when he’s locked in - he’s owned the AFC West for most of his career.
Even when the Chiefs have taken a step back, Mahomes has remained a constant threat. And if he’s coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder?
That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the division.
The Chargers have played Kansas City tough in recent years. They’ve shown they can go toe-to-toe with Mahomes.
But there’s a difference between competing and conquering. If Mahomes returns to MVP-level form, the road to the AFC West title gets a lot steeper.
That rivalry could very well be the one that decides the division.
And then there’s Las Vegas.
The Raiders made a notable move by bringing in Klint Kubiak as head coach, signaling a shift toward a more structured, quarterback-friendly offense. If they do end up drafting Fernando Mendoza - and that seems to be the direction they’re heading - they’ll at least have a plan in place. Mendoza has upside, and Kubiak’s system could help him grow quickly.
But let’s be honest: the Raiders are probably a year or two away from really making noise in this division. Rookie quarterbacks rarely come in and immediately elevate a team to the top, especially in a division this stacked.
They might steal a few games, maybe even play spoiler down the stretch, but in terms of contending for the AFC West in 2026? That’s a tall order.
So where does all of this leave the Chargers?
Right in the thick of a three-way fight with Kansas City and Denver. And that’s exactly where they should be.
If Herbert stays healthy - and that’s always the biggest “if” in the NFL - and if the offensive line continues to develop while the run game finds its rhythm, the Chargers have everything they need to win this division. They’ve already proven they can hang with the best. The next step is doing it consistently and closing out games when it matters most.
The AFC West is never a cakewalk. But for the first time in a long time, the Chargers aren’t chasing anyone. They’re right there in the mix - and they should expect to win it.