The AFC West looks different entering 2026, and the betting board says the Kansas City Chiefs are the team to catch.
Kansas City is installed as the favorite at +175 after a 2025 season that went sideways in a hurry. The Chiefs had owned the division for nine straight years from 2016 to 2024 and looked on track for a 10th straight crown, but the season unraveled. Close losses piled up, the offense slipped, production dried up, and Patrick Mahomes eventually went down with a knee injury.
That opened the door for the Denver Broncos, who seized control with a 14-3 finish. That record gave Denver both the AFC West title and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, turning what had been Kansas City’s division into one of the league’s most interesting questions heading into this year.
The Chiefs still sit atop the odds, but the price reflects a division that no longer feels automatic for them. At +175, Kansas City’s path back to the top comes with real conditions attached. Mahomes has to stay healthy, and he has to be better than he was before the injury last season.
Not everyone sees this as a simple Chiefs rebound, though. In the season betting preview “32 Bets for 32 Teams,” the case was made for the Los Angeles Chargers to win the AFC West for the first time since 2009.
The reasoning starts with Denver. The expectation there is for major regression after last year’s breakout. It also includes skepticism that Kansas City will bounce back as strongly as many expect.
That opens the lane for the Chargers, especially with Mike McDaniel now running the offense. The view is that he may not be built to be a head coach, but he can absolutely design an offense, particularly with the talent on this roster.
Health matters too. The Chargers lost both starting offensive tackles last season, and now both are back healthy. Add in an elite offensive coordinator and Jim Harbaugh on the sideline, and the case is that Los Angeles is positioned for its best season in years.
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Chargers Suddenly Have A Kicking Concern Fans Cant Ignore
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Dicker said he is fine, but Jim Harbaugh added a layer of uncertainty by noting the kicker is "working through something." For a Chargers team trying to keep special teams stable heading into the game against the Arizona Cardinals, the hope now is simple: Dicker is available, and whatever is nagging him does not linger into the regular season. [Read more 🡒]
Chargers Roster Battle Got A Lot More Interesting Against The Rams
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For a team still sorting out the bottom end of the roster, performances like those only sharpen the debate. Herbert and Johnston showed the kind of big-play upside that can change a game in a hurry, but it was Desrosiers and Uiagalelei who may have made the late-August decision-making a little tougher. In a preseason game, those are exactly the kinds of snaps that matter. [Read more 🡒]
Chargers Suddenly Have A Familiar Special Teams Decision To Make
Preseason special teams mistakes have put JK Scott back under the microscope in Los Angeles, and the Chargers are now in the familiar spot of weighing whether their longtime punter still gives them enough reliability. Scott has been with the team for four seasons, but a missed tackle on a return man and a low punt average have made this summer feel less stable than the staff would like heading into the regular season.
The Chargers are at least doing their homework on alternatives, with Thomas Morstead and Jamie Gillan among the names being discussed as possible answers if they decide to make a change. Gillan could be off the board soon, which adds a little urgency to a decision that is starting to look more like a true competition than a routine camp evaluation. [Read more 🡒]