The first half of the MLB season has produced a familiar kind of suspense: crowded standings, a few big surprises, and a handful of trends that could shape the stretch run. The All-Star break is usually a checkpoint, and this year it arrives with more teams still in the mix than you might expect.
The American League, in particular, looks jammed up. That kind of congestion can turn into a mess in a hurry, and the numbers suggest plenty of clubs still have a path if they can put together a second-half surge.
Of the 13 teams that finished last year with losing records, 11 are no more than four games out of a playoff spot now. Five of them - the Braves, Marlins, Rays, White Sox and Twins - are already in playoff position.
The White Sox are the loudest shock of the group. After losing 101, 121 and 102 games over the past three seasons, they sit in first place in the AL Central and are on pace for 85 wins.
There’s still room for long shots, too. The four teams with the longest active pennant droughts - the Mariners, Pirates, Brewers and Orioles - can still dream about the World Series. And in a season where the race feels slow and crowded, the Red Sox have already made one of the wildest climbs: in just 18 days, they went from the worst record in the league to being a half-game out of a playoff spot.
At the top of the sport, Shohei Ohtani is doing something that almost no pitcher has ever done. He reached the break with a 1.79 ERA, only four home runs allowed and just two losses.
In the past 100 years, only Greg Maddux in 1995 matched that line over a minimum of 14 starts. At the same time, Ohtani has hit 22 home runs and posted a .952 OPS.
He’s also already thrown a career-high number of 100-mph pitches in just half a season.
And if Ohtani wants a Cy Young, there’s another flamethrower standing in the way: Jacob Misiorowski. Misiorowski averages 100.5 mph on his four-seam fastball, released 7.6 feet in front of the rubber, for an average perceived velocity of 102.8 mph - the fastest ever recorded by any pitcher who has thrown at least 250 fastballs in a season. He has thrown 213 pitches this year at 102 mph or faster; the rest of MLB combined has thrown 152.
The pitch-challenge system has also settled into the season in a way that seems to be working. Only 2.2 ball/strike calls are being overturned per game, which suggests the umpires are doing a strong job, the system is not breaking up the flow, and the challenge limit is giving teams something real to manage. Fans, too, seem to like the live “reveal” effect.
The Twins have been the most active club in that space, with 268 challenges, 151 overturned calls and a 56% success rate, a bit better than the major league average of 53%. The Pirates, meanwhile, have struggled badly there, with the fewest successful challenges at 74 and the worst success rate at 41%.
A few other team trends stand out. The home run still matters more than ever in the championship picture: since 2020, the six World Series winners have ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd and 2nd in home runs.
It has been more than a decade since a team in the bottom half of the league in homers won it all, with the 2015 Royals the last to do it. That makes the Marlins, Rays, Guardians and Brewers - ranked 24th, 26th, 28th and 29th - especially interesting as they try to win in a different way.
Their approach is part of a broader youth movement across the league. Players 25 and younger are hitting .247 to .243 for players 26 and older, and they also own the better slugging percentage and OPS.
There are 10 qualified rookies with an OPS+ of 100 or better, matching 1977 for the most in a season since World War II. There are also 32 qualified players age 25 and under with an OPS+ of at least 100, the most in 80 years.
That youth trend is showing up in contracts, too. Only one free agent last winter - Dylan Cease, for seven years - signed a deal longer than five years.
This season, six rookies have signed contracts of seven years or more: J.J. Wetherholt, Kevin McGonigle, Konner Griffin, Colt Emerson, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara.
The style of play keeps tilting as well. Runs per game are up 1.6%, while home runs and strikeouts are unchanged. The biggest effect of ABS has been a rise in walks, with the walk rate reaching a 17-year high.
And then there’s the shifting shape of the lineup. The top five hitters by OPS are all left-handed: Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, James Wood, Ben Rice and Ohtani. Right-handed batting average has fallen from .246 to .241, a mark that has only been worse three times since 1920 - in 1972, 1968 and 1942, all before the DH.
Pitching, meanwhile, keeps getting harder to hit. The average fastball velocity on sinkers and four-seamers is 94.5 mph, up from 94.3 last year and up a full tick over the last five years.
Fastball use has dipped to 47.0% from 47.2% last year, and from 56.2% a decade ago, when seam-tracking was still years away from reshaping how teams think about pitch design. The game now runs on spin, shaping and sequencing, and the first half showed that trend is still very much alive.
In Other News...
Angels Great Jim Abbott Earns Emotional Honor On National Stage
Jim Abbotts baseball story has always carried a different kind of weight, and it was on a national stage this week that the former Angels pitcher was recognized for it. Abbott, who was born without a right hand and went on to carve out a 10-season major league career, accepted the Jimmy V Award for Perseverance, a fitting honor for a player whose path through the game still resonates far beyond the box score.
Abbotts career included stops with the Angels, Yankees, White Sox and Brewers, and his most enduring on-field memory remains his 1993 no-hitter. During his acceptance speech, he spoke about inclusion and perseverance, with Justin Verlander introducing him and paying tribute to the grit that defined his journey. For Angels fans, it was another reminder that Abbotts legacy has never been limited to what he did on the mound. [Read more 🡒]
Jo Adell Trade Buzz Puts Angels Fans On Edge Again
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The interest makes sense on paper because Adells recent stretch has only strengthened his value, and his contract situation gives any suitor a reason to keep watching closely. For Angels fans, though, it is another reminder that one of the organizations more intriguing homegrown talents could be part of a larger decision about where this team is headed next, even if nothing official is on the table yet. [Read more 🡒]
Angels Deadline Reality Just Became Painfully Clear For This Core
The Angels have spent years trying to thread the needle between staying relevant in the present and repairing a thin pipeline for the future, and the deadline conversation is starting to reflect that reality. After a generally positive MLB Draft, the organization still finds itself under pressure to add real talent to a farm system that has lagged behind much of the league, forcing a harder look at whether the quickest path forward is through the major-league roster.
What makes this moment more uncomfortable is that the usual safety net is gone. Mike Trout is not the answer to every deadline problem anymore, and the Angels are increasingly being pushed toward a younger-core approach rather than a short-term patch job. If they want meaningful prospect help, they may have to part with players who matter now, which is exactly the kind of choice that can define whether this reset is real or just another pause. [Read more 🡒]