The Tarik Skubal market is shaping up to be the kind of deadline domino that sends everything else rattling behind it, and the Angels are clearly waiting to see where it falls before moving Reid Detmers or Jose Soriano.
That makes sense. If a team lands Skubal, it gets the reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner and a pitcher capable of swinging a playoff series on his own.
The price, though, is going to be massive - the kind of return that only the deepest farm systems can supply. The Brewers, Rays and Dodgers all fit that bill, and all three are among the teams with a real appetite for October impact.
Detroit entered the season hoping to chase a title before Skubal reached free agency, but his first half was derailed by injury and the Tigers now sit on the edge of playoff contention. Even so, the market knows exactly what Skubal is. The Tigers have shown they can climb from far back and make October before, and that reality has pushed the asking price into rarefied air.
That’s why clubs are hanging on to their best trade chips until they know whether Skubal is theirs. The teams that miss out will start looking for the next best left-handed arm, and that puts Detmers right in the center of the conversation. Angels GM John Mozeliak’s phone is going to be busy once the Skubal situation is settled.
Soriano belongs in that same conversation, too. His raw stuff and the flashes he showed early in the season give teams a reason to see him as more than just a fallback option.
On a good day, it’s easy to picture what he could become with a little more consistency. Either starter would give a team confidence in a playoff game, and both come with two more years of team control beyond this season, which only adds to their appeal for clubs thinking beyond October.
The Dodgers are the obvious giant looming over all of this, and the idea of them adding another MVP-caliber player is enough to make the rest of baseball groan. If they get Skubal, that pushes Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, and both Chicago teams further into the hunt for starting pitching. Milwaukee has the best farm system in baseball, while Tampa Bay and the Cubs and White Sox all have talent the Angels could target.
There’s also the possibility of a surprise team jumping in for Skubal, leaving the Dodgers desperate for rotation help and staring at a playoff matchup with the lefty still on the other side. In that case, their urgency and their prospect capital could turn into a strong fit for the Angels.
Angels on SI previously outlined possible Dodgers packages for both Detmers and Soriano, and either one would significantly boost the farm. But the question is whether those trades actually get approved.
There has been plenty of talk that Arte Moreno is stepping back and letting Mozeliak run the show, but it’s hard to imagine Moreno being thrilled about helping the Dodgers chase a third straight World Series title. He also may not love the idea of facing Detmers or Soriano for the next two seasons.
Even if he has stayed out of front-office matters for months, he could still shut down an I-5 deal of that size.
Until there’s clarity on how much authority Mozeliak really has, the Angels are operating with two very different paths. If Mozeliak is truly in charge, the best outcome might be the Cubs landing Skubal.
That would keep Chicago pushing Milwaukee in the NL Central and give the Dodgers a big-market postseason rival. It would also set up a more favorable market for the Angels, with Milwaukee and the Chicago clubs competing for pitching help and perhaps driving up the value of the return.
If Moreno is still making the final call, then the Dodgers landing Skubal may be the better result for Anaheim, since Los Angeles was never sending its best talent the Angels’ way anyway. It would make the Dodgers overwhelming title favorites, but it would also keep Milwaukee’s system in play, along with prospects from both Chicago clubs.
Monday could get very busy very late. The deadline is at 3 P.M. on the West Coast, Skubal looks like he has thrown his last pitch as a Tiger, Detmers is not scheduled to pitch until Tuesday, and it remains to be seen whether Soriano starts tonight in Anaheim. If he does, he’ll be on a pitch limit.
With Skubal sitting at the center of it all, this deadline could drag deep into Monday afternoon and still finish with a flurry of deals right at the wire.
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