The Angels know better than most what Luis Robert Jr. can do when everything is clicking. In 32 career games against Los Angeles, the outfielder has posted a .305 batting average and an .819 OPS, and it wasn’t long ago that he looked like one of the most dynamic players in the sport. Three years ago, he put together a season with 38 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 5.0 fWAR.
That version of Robert is still in there somewhere. The problem is how rarely it has shown up lately.
Injuries have stripped away a lot of the shine. Over the past three seasons, Robert has appeared in just 271 of a possible 486 games, and his wRC+ has been below average in each of those years. The wear and tear has also affected his defense and baserunning, which only adds to the uncertainty around what kind of player he is now.
That uncertainty is part of why the Baltimore Orioles moved on, declining his $20 million option for 2027. Robert is now a free agent for the first time in his career, and he’s still only 29. The upside is obvious, but the Angels may not be the club best equipped to chase it.
This is where the cautionary tale comes in. The Angels were once interested in Robert when he was still carrying much more value as a White Sox trade target, but nothing ever got done.
That might end up looking wise. Since the start of 2025, Robert has been paid $35 million and produced 1.8 fWAR.
For comparison, Wade Meckler put up 2.0 fWAR this year on a pre-arbitration salary.
That’s the heart of the argument against a move here: even if Robert still has a ceiling that would probably beat out Meckler and Jose Siri in 2027, and maybe even push a 35-year-old Mike Trout, the availability question hangs over everything. He has reached more than 110 games in a season only once in his career, and that came when he was 25.
MLB Trade Rumors projects his next deal at one year and $14 million, which makes the risk feel manageable on paper. But even at that level, it’s hard to bank on him being on the field enough to cash in on the talent.
The warning sign is the Justin Upton move from a decade ago, when the Angels traded for and later extended the four-time All-Star as he was closing in on 30. Upton was more proven and healthier than Robert is now, but the contract still aged badly, with Upton finishing his time with the team at -2.3 bWAR over his final three seasons.
Maybe Robert fits the kind of short-term, upside-driven swing the Angels need. But if they’re going to take a shot, the target has to come with more certainty than this one does.
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