As we gear up for the much-anticipated Battle of Ontario, it's time to wrap up our preview series by diving into the final notes leading into Game 1. We've already dissected the crucial five-on-five matchups and special teams dynamics, and now, let's set the stage for an exciting series opener.
Let's face it, the Maple Leafs have had a rough time kicking off series on the right foot, sporting a 2-7 record in Game 1s. It's clear they often find themselves in a come-from-behind position, which makes their path to victory more challenging. A strong start against the less-seasoned Ottawa Senators could be key to setting the tempo.
But there are questions about the Leafs' (presumed) starting lineup. The middle-six configuration they're rolling with isn't exactly the stuff of legends:
Leafs lines at practice:
- Knies – Matthews – Marner
- Domi – Tavares – Nylander
- McMann – Holmberg – Robertson
- Lorentz – Laughton – Jarnkrok
- Pacioretty – Kampf – Reaves
On defense, we have:
- McCabe – Tanev
- Rielly – Carlo
- Benoit – Ekman-Larsson
- Mermis – Myers
Between the pipes, Stolarz takes the starting role, with Woll backing him up.
Now, the numbers tell us Pontus Holmberg only tallied 19 points this season and is limited in shooting prowess. On the other hand, the Senators are running with a more prolific scorer like Dylan Cozens at 3C, who notched 47 points.
Compare that to Shane Pinto if you consider him their 3C, who scored an impressive 21 goals. No matter how you slice it, the Ottawa crew has a leg up here.
Digging deeper, it looks like the Scott Laughton line will effectively serve as the Leafs' third line. They're reliable, but it means we're seeing a 20-goal scorer like Bobby McMann getting reduced minutes, even though he's arguably the sixth-best forward on the team.
The lineup gives off a sense of déjà vu akin to when the Leafs ran with a controversial configuration against Tampa Bay back in 2023. That initial setup didn't pan out well, but after some tweaks, the Leafs turned the tide.
This time around, the Leafs aren't facing the reigning champions, which affords them a bit more wiggle room. If the Matthews line steps up to the plate, particularly without facing an elite defense, and if the special teams deliver as expected, there's potential for success.
Max Domi and William Nylander have playoff performances in their blood, so if they continue to shine, it could compensate for defensive lapses. However, the line still appears to be a collection of talent lacking defensive grit and a forecheck that keeps opponents honest.
Interestingly, the McMann-Holmberg-Robertson combo impressed by controlling play and creating offensive zone opportunities. McMann and Robertson can finish plays, while Holmberg brings solid defensive awareness to the table.
On the Senators' side, Shane Pinto emerges as a critical X-factor. Ottawa is eyeing his ability to neutralize Matthews as a pressure point.
If Pinto can stifle Matthews, it increases the demand on Toronto's other lines. But if Knies and Marner can support Matthews in generating offense, life becomes a lot simpler for the Leafs.
Defense-wise, the McCabe-Tanev pairing stands as a formidable shutdown force against the Senators' Stutzle line. If this matchup pans out in favor of Toronto, any offensive production from their middle-six lines becomes advantageous, given the firepower in their ranks.
Looking at other nuances, the Senators' away record was lackluster this season, but it may not weigh heavily early on as adrenaline kicks in. However, this could come into play if the series stretches to Games 5 or 7. Meanwhile, the Leafs demonstrated prowess in close games with a 23-4-4 record in one-goal matchups, suggesting they thrive in tight contests.
The Senators thrive on net-front battles, which propels the Leafs' need to leverage their big-bodied defensemen to clear the crease. The emergence of Morgan Rielly and Scott Laughton as key contributors late in the season offers promising prospects for Toronto. Rielly ended the regular season strong in point production and dynamic play, while Laughton offers dependable two-way service with burgeoning offensive potential.
When considering Ottawa's defense, there’s intrigue in their mobile and skilled lineup not being the most physically intimidating bunch. In contrast, Toronto's defensive lineup has the brawn to stand toe-to-toe with Ottawa's physical play, especially against talents like Brady Tkachuk.
Further examination of Ottawa's planned use of a rookie third pairing introduces an aspect the Leafs can capitalize on, especially when they control matchups on home ice.
Ottawa's goalie Linus Ullmark had playoff struggles previously, creating uncertainty in net for the Senators. Conversely, Toronto is equipped with quality goaltending options that lessen the pressure on their back end.
In summary, as we weigh all factors, the bottom line for Toronto hinges on their stars delivering on the playoff stage. Provided they meet this criterion, a favorable outcome seems likely.
Prediction? Leafs in six.
