NFL Draft Watch: Titans Gain Momentum, While Raiders and Giants Lead the Race for No. 1 Pick
The Tennessee Titans may have played their way out of the No. 1 overall pick conversation - and they did it in convincing fashion. With a 26-9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee snapped its home losing streak and, in the process, dramatically shifted its draft outlook.
Heading into Week 16, the Titans were very much in the mix for the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But now, at 3-12, they’ve won two of their last three and are showing signs of life heading into the final stretch.
They’ll close the season against the Saints and Jaguars, but even a pair of losses wouldn’t be enough to vault them back into the No. 1 spot. According to the latest projections, their odds of landing the top pick are now under 1 percent.
That’s largely because of strength of schedule. Even if Tennessee finishes 3-14, they’d lose the tiebreaker to other teams with the same record. And with the Giants and Raiders - both sitting at 2-13 - facing each other next week, at least one of those teams is guaranteed to reach three wins, further complicating any Titans path to the top.
So while Tennessee may not be in position to draft a franchise-changing player at No. 1 - or trade the pick for a haul - they are at least ending the season with some momentum. That’s not nothing, especially for a team trying to build around a young quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ season continues to unravel. Already without Patrick Mahomes, who tore his ACL last week, Kansas City lost backup Gardner Minshew to a knee injury early in the game.
That’s two quarterbacks down in two weeks, and now the Chiefs are suddenly staring down a potential top-10 pick. Their odds sit at 31 percent, per The Athletic’s simulator.
Not exactly the trajectory anyone saw coming for the defending champs.
Let’s take a closer look at the teams still in the running for the No. 1 overall pick - and how things shook out in Week 16.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
The Raiders didn’t win, but they showed more fight than we’ve seen in weeks. After getting blanked 31-0 by the Eagles in Week 15, they bounced back with a competitive 23-21 loss to the Texans - their closest game since an overtime heartbreaker against Jacksonville.
Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty was the story here. He broke off two highlight-reel touchdowns - one rushing, one receiving - both from 50+ yards out. That kind of explosiveness is exactly what the Raiders have been missing, and it gives fans a glimpse of what the future could look like.
As for the draft, Las Vegas still has the inside track to the No. 1 pick. Their odds sit just below 50 percent, and a loss next week to the Giants would push that number north of 78 percent.
But Week 18 could get tricky - they’ll face a Chiefs team down to its third-string quarterback, which might actually give the Raiders a chance to steal a win. For fans dreaming of the top pick, that’s a game to watch nervously.
Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, vs. Chiefs
New York Jets (3-12)
The Jets made a change on the coaching staff, firing defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, and the defense responded - sort of. They allowed fewer than 30 points for the first time in three weeks, but the offense was completely stuck in neutral during a 29-6 loss to the Saints.
It’s been a rough ride for New York, and while their odds for the No. 1 pick did get a small bump, they’re still the longest among the teams in the mix. The simulator projects them to land the No. 2 pick, but they’d need help - and likely two losses - to climb into the top slot.
Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Bills
New York Giants (2-13)
The Giants have been stuck in reverse for months, and Week 16 was more of the same. A 16-13 loss to the Vikings marked their ninth straight defeat, and the offense hit a new low.
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart was overwhelmed, finishing with just 33 yards on 7-of-13 passing. As a team, the Giants totaled only 141 yards - their worst output of the season.
But if there’s a silver lining, it’s this: the Giants are now firmly in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 pick. Their odds jumped by about 10 percent after the loss, and next week’s matchup against the Raiders could be the decider.
A loss in Vegas would push their odds above 60 percent. A win?
Those odds drop to under 1 percent.
This is a franchise in transition. Brian Daboll was let go in November, and the front office is staring down a pivotal offseason. A top pick could be the first building block in a much-needed rebuild.
Remaining schedule: at Raiders, vs. Eagles
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
The Browns have been competitive at times this season, and Sunday’s 23-20 loss to Buffalo was another example. But they still can’t seem to close games, and the offense continues to miss opportunities.
To make matters worse, they lost rookie running back Quinshon Judkins to a serious injury - a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula - in the second quarter. That’s a brutal blow for a player who had been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise frustrating season.
The loss did help their draft positioning. Cleveland’s odds for the No. 1 pick ticked up by about 5 percent, and while they’re still behind the Raiders and Giants, they have a strong shot at landing in the top five (84 percent chance, per projections).
Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Steelers
Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
The Cardinals are still technically alive in the race for the top pick, but like the Titans, their strength of schedule works against them. Even if they finish 3-14, they’re unlikely to win any tiebreakers.
That said, Arizona is still in good shape to land a top-five selection - their odds sit around 71 percent. For a team with plenty of holes to fill, that’s a valuable asset heading into the offseason.
Where It Stands Heading into Week 17
With two weeks to go, the race for the No. 1 pick is down to a handful of teams - and Week 17 could be the turning point. The Raiders-Giants matchup is the big one, with massive implications for both franchises.
Lose, and you’re likely drafting first. Win, and you might be out of the running entirely.
The Titans, meanwhile, are out of the race but trending in a positive direction. And the Chiefs, of all teams, are suddenly in the mix for a top-10 pick - a surreal twist to a season that’s gone completely off the rails.
There’s still plenty of football left, but for fans of the league’s bottom-tier teams, the next two weeks are less about wins and more about positioning. The future of several franchises could be decided before the ball even kicks off in Week 18.