With Week 16 officially underway, the playoff picture is starting to crystallize-and while some teams are eyeing January football, others are just trying to finish strong. That’s exactly where the Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum.
The Raiders, sitting at 2-12, have long been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing left to play for.
Pride, development, and evaluation are all still on the table. Meanwhile, the Texans are clinging to the AFC’s seventh seed at 9-5, and they’re not just trying to hold on-they’re pushing to climb.
With the 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars still within reach, every win from here on out could reshape the AFC playoff bracket.
Raiders Turn Back to Geno Smith, Look to End Slide
Las Vegas is coming off a rough one-a 31-0 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that marked their eighth straight defeat. This week, they’ll turn back to veteran quarterback Geno Smith in hopes of stopping the bleeding and salvaging some dignity down the stretch.
Smith’s return adds a layer of intrigue. While the offense has struggled mightily, there’s still talent on this roster-especially in the backfield.
But the team’s recent usage of running back Ashton Jeanty has raised some eyebrows. Jeanty logged just nine carries last week, a number that reflects more than just game script.
Over the past month, his workload has steadily declined: 17, 15, 10, and now 9 carries.
It’s a trend that might actually be by design. With the season lost, the Raiders would be wise to start thinking long-term.
Jeanty has shown flashes of being a foundational piece for this offense. Preserving his health through the final three games could be a smart move-especially considering the hits he’s taken behind a struggling offensive line.
The Raiders may pride themselves on toughness, but protecting your future is part of building a winning culture too.
Texans Surge Behind CJ Stroud’s Late-Season Spark
On the other side, the Texans are heating up at exactly the right time. After a 3-5 start, Houston has rattled off six straight wins, including a dominant 40-20 performance over the Arizona Cardinals last week.
That win didn’t just keep them in the playoff race-it put them in control of their own destiny. A win this week would bump their postseason odds to 98%, and you can bet they’ll be playing with that urgency.
A big reason for their turnaround? CJ Stroud.
Early in the season, the Texans’ offense looked out of sync. The deep shots weren’t connecting, and the rhythm just wasn’t there.
But that changed when running back Woody Marks began to emerge. His presence in the backfield has forced defenses to respect the run, and that’s opened up the vertical game for Stroud-especially with wide receiver Nico Collins stretching the field.
Stroud’s performance last week was arguably his most complete of the season: 22-of-29 passing, 260 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions. That last stat is key-he’s thrown just one pick since October.
That kind of ball security is playoff gold. If he keeps playing this clean, the Texans could be more than just a wild card team.
They might be a real problem in January.
Texans Defense Aiming for a Statement
And don’t forget about the other side of the ball. Houston’s defense has been a force all year, leading the league in fewest yards allowed per game (269.2) and giving up just 27 total touchdowns-the second-fewest in the NFL. They rank top-five against both the run and the pass, and they’ve held 12 of their 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer.
But here’s the thing-they’ve only pitched one shutout all season. That could change this week.
The Raiders’ offense has been turnover-prone, coughing it up 18 times this season. That’s music to the ears of a Texans defense that thrives on takeaways. If Houston can keep tight end Brock Bowers in check and bottle up Jeanty-assuming the Raiders don’t limit his touches again-they’ll have a real shot at blanking a team that’s already been shut out once this month.
What’s at Stake
For Houston, this is about momentum, seeding, and proving they belong. For Las Vegas, it’s about showing fight, evaluating talent, and maybe-just maybe-playing spoiler. The Texans are surging, the Raiders are searching, and Week 16 is ready to tell us a little more about where both franchises are headed.