The Las Vegas Raiders' 31-0 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15 wasn’t just another rough Sunday-it was a full-on collapse. And while no one in Raider Nation enjoyed watching their team get blanked by the defending Super Bowl champs, the loss may have quietly pushed the franchise a step closer to something far more important: the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Yes, it's been that kind of season in Las Vegas. The playoffs have been out of reach for weeks, and the scoreboard has been brutal.
But in the background, a different race is unfolding-one that could shape the future of the franchise. Right now, the Raiders are squarely in the mix for the top pick, and the outcome of the next few weeks could determine whether they get the chance to reset their trajectory with a franchise quarterback or continue the long, winding road of roster reconstruction.
Draft Position: Still in the Hunt for No. 1
After Week 15, the Raiders remain locked into the No. 2 spot in the current draft order with a 2-12 record. The only team ahead of them?
The equally struggling New York Giants, also sitting at 2-12 but with a slightly weaker strength of schedule (SOS). That SOS is the key tiebreaker-not head-to-head record-when it comes to draft positioning.
And in that department, the Raiders are gaining ground.
Here’s how the top of the draft board looks after Week 15:
- New York Giants (2-12) - SOS: .536
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) - SOS: .548
- Tennessee Titans (2-12) - SOS: .576
- Cleveland Browns (3-11) - SOS: .485
- New York Jets (3-11) - SOS: .538
- Arizona Cardinals (3-11) - SOS: .571
- New Orleans Saints (3-11) - SOS: .494
- Washington Commanders (4-10) - SOS: .508
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) - SOS: .521
- Atlanta Falcons (5-9) - SOS: .502 (Pick traded to LA Rams)
The good news for Las Vegas? They didn’t lose any ground in the standings, and their strength of schedule moved in the right direction. They even created some space between themselves and Tennessee, who are also hanging around in this three-team race for the top spot.
The Mendoza Factor
If the Raiders do land the No. 1 overall pick, there’s little mystery about who they’d likely target: Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. After winning the Heisman Trophy and AP Player of the Year, Mendoza has established himself as the consensus top prospect in the draft. He’s not just a college star-he’s built for the NFL, and he’s the type of player who can instantly change the direction of a franchise.
But if Las Vegas stays at No. 2-or drops any further-the path forward gets more complicated. Do they take the next-best quarterback?
Do they pivot to a blue-chip player at another position? Or do they trade down, collect a haul of picks, and commit to a longer-term rebuild?
Each of those options comes with its own set of risks and rewards.
Odds and Ends
According to recent projections, the Raiders currently hold the best odds to secure the No. 1 pick, sitting at 41%. The Giants and Titans are tied for second at 18% each, while the Jets (11%) and Browns (10%) round out the top five. So while nothing is guaranteed, Las Vegas is in the driver’s seat-for now.
And that makes the final few games of the season strangely important. Most fans won’t be rooting for wins, but they will be watching closely.
Week 17’s matchup with the Giants looms large-it could very well decide who gets the first crack at Mendoza. That game isn’t just a battle between two struggling teams; it’s a potential pivot point for the future of both franchises.
The Bigger Picture
There’s no sugarcoating what happened in Philadelphia. The Raiders were outclassed in every phase.
But in a season where wins are few and far between, losses like this one might actually serve a purpose. They keep the team in the hunt for the top pick, and they continue to add pressure to a coaching situation that’s felt unstable for months.
For fans, it’s a tough pill to swallow. But with the right pick in April, and the right moves in the offseason, this painful stretch could eventually be remembered as the turning point. The road to rebuilding is rarely smooth-but sometimes, hitting rock bottom is the first step toward building something better.
And if that road leads to a quarterback like Fernando Mendoza? Raider Nation might look back on this season not just as a disaster-but as the beginning of something new.