With just three games left in the regular season, the Las Vegas Raiders are staring down a reality that few teams want to admit-but one that could ultimately reshape their future: they’re in prime position for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Now, let’s be clear-this isn't about moral victories or finishing strong. For the Raiders, every win from here on out could actually hurt more than help.
If they manage to beat the Giants in two weeks, they risk sliding as low as the No. 3 pick. And based on how this draft class is shaping up, that’s not where you want to be-especially if you’re a franchise in desperate need of a long-term answer at quarterback.
Longtime draft analyst Todd McShay put it bluntly during his appearance on The Rich Eisen Show this week: this isn’t your typical top-10 draft class. Unless you’re sitting on that coveted No. 1 pick, the value just isn’t there.
“I hate to say this as we get ready to embark on the 2026 draft process, it’s not a great top 10 in terms of what we’re used to,” McShay said. “With the elite offensive tackles and pass rushers. There’s a lot of good ones… [but] it’s a different class in that the positions of value are not the best players this year.”
Translation: outside of one or two names, this isn’t a draft where you can sit at No. 2 or No. 3 and feel confident you’re landing a franchise cornerstone. And that’s exactly the situation the Raiders could find themselves in if they win even one more game.
The name dominating early draft conversations? Fernando Mendoza.
The Indiana quarterback has emerged as the near-consensus top QB on the board. And if Dante Moore ends up staying at Oregon, Mendoza might be the only quarterback in this class with true No. 1 pick pedigree.
So here’s the dilemma: if the Raiders land the top pick, they can take Mendoza and hit the reset button at quarterback. But if they fall to No. 2, things get complicated-fast.
In that scenario, they could be watching teams line up to trade with whoever holds the No. 1 pick to go get Mendoza. And if the Raiders want him badly enough, they might have to give up significant draft capital just to move up a single spot. That’s a tough pill to swallow, especially when the rest of the top prospects don’t play premium positions like quarterback, edge rusher, or offensive tackle.
McShay emphasized the issue: the top of the draft is thin at the positions that usually drive top-10 value. That means the Raiders could be stuck in no-man’s land-close to the top, but not close enough to control their own destiny.
So yes, as odd as it sounds, the smartest move for the Raiders might be to stay the course-and keep losing.
The good news for fans who’ve been through a rough season already? That shouldn’t be too hard. The Raiders haven’t exactly looked like a team ready to rattle off three straight wins.
But even if the Raiders do their part, they’ll still have to keep an eye on the teams around them. According to Vegas Nation’s Vinny Bonsignore, there are a few franchises that could be eyeing a move up the draft board-especially for a shot at Mendoza.
One name to watch? The Los Angeles Rams.
Bonsignore noted that the Rams hold the Falcons’ first-round pick, which currently sits in the top 10, along with their own. And GM Les Snead has never been shy about trading future picks to get his guy.
“They’ve got to figure out what they’re going to do post-Matthew Stafford,” Bonsignore said. “They’ve got a really good young roster outside of their quarterbacks.”
It’s a fair point. The Rams are aging at key spots-Davante Adams among them-but they’re still built to win now if they can find the right quarterback. Whether it’s the Rams, Jets, or even the Steelers, there’s a real possibility that teams will be jockeying for that top spot.
And that’s what makes the next three weeks so critical for the Raiders. If they finish with the No. 1 pick, they control the board.
They can take Mendoza, or they can trade down and command a king’s ransom. But if they slip to No. 2 or No. 3, they’re suddenly at the mercy of whoever’s ahead of them-and that’s not a great place to be when you’re trying to build a franchise around a quarterback.
The bottom line? The Raiders are in a race to the bottom. And for once, that might be exactly where they need to be.