With just four games left in the regular season, the Las Vegas Raiders find themselves in a position no team wants to be in-but one that could shape their future: leading the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
It’s been nearly two decades since the Raiders last held the top pick. That was back in 2007, when they selected LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell-a name that still stirs debate in draft circles for all the wrong reasons.
Since then, the franchise has made eight top-10 selections, but none from the very top spot. Now, with a 2-11 record and the league’s weakest strength of schedule among the bottom-tier teams, Las Vegas currently holds the inside track to pick first overall once again.
The Three-Team Tangle at the Bottom
The Raiders aren’t alone in this basement battle. The Tennessee Titans and New York Giants also sit at 2-11, and all three teams are locked in a tight race where strength of schedule could ultimately break the tie. Right now, that tiebreaker favors Las Vegas-but that could change quickly depending on how the final four weeks shake out.
Week 17 is shaping up to be a pivotal one. The Giants and Raiders square off in what could be a de facto “battle for the bottom,” while Tennessee faces a struggling Saints team that’s also sitting at 3-10. That weekend could go a long way in determining who ends up with the No. 1 pick come April.
Giants, Titans, and a Draft-Day Dilemma
The Giants, who are coming off a bye, haven’t won since October 9 and are riding a seven-game losing streak heading into a Week 15 matchup with the Commanders. Tennessee, meanwhile, just pulled off a tight 31-29 win over the Browns-another 3-10 team that’s part of the crowded lower tier.
For the Titans, that win might have cost them more than it gained. While it broke a losing streak and offered a morale boost, it also nudged them slightly up the standings and, for now, behind the Raiders in draft position. And with a winnable game against the Saints looming, Tennessee could find itself playing its way out of top-pick contention if it keeps stacking wins.
The 3-10 Logjam: Saints, Jets, Cardinals
New Orleans, the Jets, and the Cardinals are all sitting at 3-10, just one game ahead of the current bottom three. Any of them could slide into the top-pick conversation with a couple more losses. The Saints, notably, have only held the No. 1 pick once in their history-way back in 1981, when they drafted running back George Rogers.
The Jets and Cardinals, meanwhile, are both in evaluation mode. With young quarterbacks under the microscope and rosters in flux, a chance to reset with the top pick could be enticing for either franchise.
Falcons, Bengals Still (Barely) in the Mix
Don’t count out the 4-9 Falcons and Bengals just yet. While they’re technically still alive in the race for the top pick, Atlanta’s situation is a bit more complicated.
The Falcons traded their 2026 first-rounder to the Rams during the 2025 draft to move up and grab Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce. That move has paid early dividends-Pearce is tied for the team lead with 6.0 sacks-but it means Atlanta won’t reap the benefits of a high pick unless it acquires one via trade.
As for Cincinnati, a few more losses could slide them into the top-three conversation, especially if other bottom-tier teams pick up wins down the stretch.
Rams Focused on Playoffs, Not Picks
The Rams, by contrast, are in a completely different universe right now. At 10-3, they’re not thinking about draft order-they’re eyeing playoff seeding.
A win this Sunday against the Lions would make them the first NFC team to officially punch a postseason ticket. And thanks to that trade with Atlanta, they’re also holding a valuable first-round pick that could land in the top 10, depending on how the Falcons finish.
What’s Next?
The final month of the regular season isn’t just about playoff pushes-it’s also about positioning for the future. For teams like the Raiders, Titans, and Giants, the next four games could determine who gets the first crack at a potential franchise-changer in the 2026 NFL Draft. Whether that’s a quarterback, a generational pass rusher, or another cornerstone talent, the stakes are high.
And while no one wants to be in this position, history has shown that the right pick at No. 1 can alter a franchise’s trajectory. The question now is: who’s going to get that chance?