The Las Vegas Raiders started the year with enough momentum to make fans squint at the AFC standings and dream a little. A 3-0 start will do that, especially when it’s followed by a close loss to the front-running Kansas City Chiefs. For a minute, it looked like there might actually be something there.
That feeling has faded fast. Klint Kubiak's team has now dropped four straight, and what once looked like a possible push toward the top of the AFC West has turned into a much harsher reality.
After Week 4, the Raiders had a shot at first in the division. Now they sit comfortably in third.
The latest AFC playoff picture reflects that slide. Las Vegas was hanging around the Wild Card race for several weeks, but last Sunday’s loss pushed them out of the bracket. A Week 7 defeat to the Los Angeles Rams only widened the gap.
Here is how the AFC looks after Week 7:
- Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
- Buffalo Bills (5-1)
- Cleveland Browns (5-2)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
- Denver Broncos (5-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
- New England Patriots (4-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (4-3)
- Las Vegas Raiders (3-4)
- New York Jets (2-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (2-5)
- Houston Texans (2-5)
- Miami Dolphins (1-5)
- Tennessee Titans (1-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)
The Raiders are still 10th in the conference standings, but the math around them has gotten a lot less friendly. This time last week, they were only 1.0 games behind the team in fifth.
Now they are 1.5 games behind the team in seventh. That’s a meaningful drop in just seven days.
The Athletic’s playoff simulator has Las Vegas at 13 percent to reach the postseason. A win over the New York Jets in Week 8 would nudge that number up to 19 percent. Lose, and it falls to 7 percent, with even more uncomfortable questions following close behind.
At the top of the AFC, the Chiefs took their first loss of the season but stayed in front at 5-1, ahead of the also 5-1 Bills. Cleveland’s surprise win moved the Browns into third, and with Jacksonville on a bye, the Jaguars slipped behind them. Maybe this Cleveland team is for real.
Denver’s latest win has the Broncos firmly in control of the Wild Card race, with Pittsburgh right behind after winning Sunday morning in Paris, France. The Bengals are a game back but hold the final spot thanks to owning one fewer loss than the teams around them.
The two teams sitting directly above Las Vegas are the Patriots and Ravens, both at 4-3. New England’s head-to-head tiebreaker over the Raiders makes that position especially tough to shake if the Patriots stay in the mix.
Las Vegas does get a chance to respond quickly. The Raiders face the 2-5 Jets next, a team that just handed the Miami Dolphins their first win of the year. On paper, it’s a game the Raiders should take and use to put some daylight between themselves and the pack behind them.
Below that, the picture gets messy in a hurry. Indianapolis is already in sell-off mode, with the team having thrown in the towel on the 2026 season.
Houston, also 2-5, has not done the same. Miami and Tennessee were expected to be near the bottom of the conference, though the Chargers remain the biggest surprise of all.
Los Angeles escaped embarrassment last week by sitting on a bye, but Week 8 sends them back onto the field and, likely, back toward the win column against the Los Angeles Rams.
For now, the Raiders are still in the conversation. But the room is getting crowded, and the margin for error is shrinking fast. Hopefully, this column stays focused on the playoff race for a while longer and doesn’t turn into a draft-order watch.
In Other News...
Raiders Just Put Dont'e Thornton Jr. Under A Real Spotlight
The Raiders have finally brought Dont'e Thornton Jr. back onto the active roster, a move that comes after head coach Klint Kubiak had been non-committal about whether the rookie receiver would be ready in time. His return gives Las Vegas another pass-catching option at a time when the offense could use all the help it can get, especially with Jack Bech also expected back at practice soon after a broken forearm.
Thornton's activation also forced a roster decision, and the Raiders chose to make it on the defensive side of the ball. For a team still sorting out how its receiving mix will look moving forward, the timing adds a little more pressure to Thornton to show he can contribute quickly and make the most of the opening he was given. [Read more 🡒]
Raiders Roster Shakeup Could Be Just The Start
The Raiders made a roster tweak this week by activating Donte Thornton Jr. and moving on from Jonah Laulu, who could circle back to the practice squad. Its the kind of housekeeping that comes with a long season, but it also fits a team still sorting through its depth and trying to find a workable mix after another rough stretch.
What makes the move more interesting is that it may not be the last one. Jack Bech is expected back from injury soon, and his return could force another shuffle at wide receiver as Las Vegas keeps reworking the bottom of the roster. Beyond that, the Raiders are still dealing with the broader noise around the team, from former wideout Zay Jones landing with Arizona to fresh chatter about Maxx Crosby as the losses keep piling up. [Read more 🡒]
Raiders May Have Let A Rare O-Line Chance Slip Away
Four straight losses have turned the Raiders from a team trying to hang around the playoff picture into one that has to think about the trade deadline very differently. At 3-4, the conversation in Las Vegas is no longer just about adding help for a push, but about whether the roster needs bigger-picture fixes, especially along an offensive line that has been under the microscope for much of the season.
So when a rare name like Quenton Nelson suddenly came off the board, it was the sort of move that naturally makes the Raiders wonder what might have been. Nelson would have fit the kind of upgrade this offense could use, but his availability came with the usual complications tied to his contract and the timing of where Las Vegas appears to be headed as a team. In a year that already looks like it could tilt toward rebuilding, chances to land a premium lineman do not come along often. [Read more 🡒]