The Raiders’ defense has reached a point where every new opponent seems to have a clear path to stress it, and the run game has become the easiest way in.
Since Week 3, Las Vegas has allowed 30 or more points in every game, giving up an average of 35.8 points per outing during the team’s four-game slide. What looked like the early stages of a new era under Rob Leonard has turned into a much rougher film session now that opponents have had time to study the tape and exploit the gaps.
The biggest crack has shown up against the run. Through the first three weeks, the Raiders sat seventh in EPA against the run.
From Weeks 3 to 7, they’ve dropped all the way to 31st in that category. A major reason for that plunge has been their trouble handling 13 personnel, and opponents have started leaning right into it.
The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams both took advantage of that vulnerability over the past two weeks, and the Rams in particular hammered it home. In Week 7, Sean McVay’s offense ran for 111 yards on 23 carries out of 13 personnel against Las Vegas.
The Raiders tried to counter by using more base defense, lining up in base on 64 percent of their snaps according to Sumer Sports, but it didn’t change the result. Los Angeles still produced 123 rushing yards when the Raiders were in base.
That lack of resistance on the ground has done more than just pad opponent stats. It has kept Las Vegas’ offense stuck on the sideline and made the whole operation harder to sustain.
Tackling has been another problem feeding the same issue. Over the last four weeks, the Raiders rank 24th in missed-tackle percentage, and Leonard has already pointed to that as something they have to clean up.
Now they’re staring at a Jets team that could follow the same script. New York uses 13 personnel at the 13th-highest rate in the NFL, and that usage could climb even more if the Jets decide to attack a weakness they can plainly see on film. The catch is that the Jets haven’t exactly been lighting it up on the ground, ranking 27th in rushing EPA.
Breece Hall could return from injury, which would change the equation. If he does, the Raiders will have another problem to solve. If he doesn’t, the assignment stays the same: fix the run defense, tighten up the tackling, and stop letting opponents dictate the terms.
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