With just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, 14 teams have officially been eliminated from playoff contention-and for those franchises, the focus has already shifted to the 2026 NFL Draft. While the postseason picture sharpens for contenders, the bottom of the standings is setting the stage for a different kind of battle: the race for the No. 1 overall pick.
Right now, the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders are tied for the league’s worst record. And in a twist of scheduling fate, they’ll face off in Week 17 in what could quietly become the most consequential game of the season-for draft positioning, not playoff hopes.
A Draft Loaded with Talent-But Not Necessarily Quarterback-Needy Teams
This year’s draft class is deep and versatile, with high-end talent across multiple positions. But here’s what makes things especially intriguing: many of the teams at the bottom of the standings already have young quarterbacks in place. That’s not typically the case at the top of the draft board, where signal-callers usually dominate the conversation.
That dynamic could shake up the early selections-especially if the Giants end up with the top pick. They just spent a first-rounder last year on Jaxson Dart, and while his rookie season hasn’t been perfect, there’s still belief in his upside. That opens the door for them to either trade the pick or go in a non-quarterback direction, which is rare but not unprecedented.
Week 17: Giants vs. Raiders-A Draft Shaping Showdown
The Giants-Raiders matchup in Week 17 carries massive implications. The loser of that game is almost guaranteed to secure the No. 1 overall pick.
And while no team comes out and admits to tanking, it’s hard to ignore the subtext-especially with the Raiders already placing rookie tight end Brock Bowers on injured reserve. That move, intentional or not, certainly doesn’t hurt their draft odds.
If the Raiders Land the Top Pick…
Las Vegas has a more straightforward situation. The Geno Smith experiment hasn’t panned out, and the franchise is clearly in the market for a long-term answer under center. That puts them in prime position to take one of the top quarterbacks in this class-either Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore.
Mendoza just capped off a stellar season with a Heisman Trophy and led Indiana to the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. He’s a cerebral quarterback with top-tier accuracy and an advanced feel for the game. What separates Mendoza is his ability to process defenses in real time-he sees the field like a veteran, and his production this season was unmatched.
Moore, on the other hand, brings a different flavor. The Oregon quarterback has elite arm talent and thrives in high-pressure moments.
His deep ball is a weapon, and he’s capable of making throws at every level of the field. He’s a bit more of a high-variance prospect-he’ll take risks, but the upside is tantalizing.
He already showed flashes of brilliance in the College Football Playoff, tossing four touchdowns against James Madison.
If the Raiders end up picking first, expect them to do a full evaluation of the quarterback class. While LaNorris Sellers and Arch Manning are returning to school, other names like Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, and John Mateer could sneak into the first-round conversation. Still, Mendoza and Moore are the clear front-runners for that top spot.
If the Giants Hold the Top Pick… Things Get Interesting
New York’s situation is far more layered. With Jaxson Dart in the fold, the Giants may not be in the market for another quarterback. That opens up a few possibilities.
First, they could trade the pick. And if either Mendoza or Moore continues to shine in the postseason, quarterback-needy teams will be lining up with offers. The Giants could command a massive haul in return-think multiple first-round picks and then some.
But if they keep the pick, New York could target the best non-quarterback on the board. That conversation starts with Ohio State defenders Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs.
Reese is a rangy, instinctive linebacker who flies to the football, while Downs is a game-changing safety with elite coverage skills. Neither plays a premium position in the eyes of most draft evaluators, but both are considered among the best pure football players in this class.
Then there’s Rueben Bain Jr., the edge rusher out of Miami. He’s explosive, disruptive, and has the tools to become a cornerstone pass rusher.
But the Giants are already stacked at that position. Brian Burnes is second in the league in sacks, Abdul Carter was a top-three pick last year, and Kayvon Thibodeaux continues to develop into a difference-maker.
That kind of depth makes it unlikely they’d double down on another edge rusher-at least at No. 1 overall.
One wildcard? Running back Jeremiyah Love.
The Notre Dame standout is a special talent, with the kind of vision, burst, and versatility that could tempt the Giants to break the modern mold and take a running back at the top. They did it once before with Saquon Barkley, and while Barkley’s best years have come since his move to Philadelphia, his selection still set the standard for what an elite back can bring to an offense.
With Cam Skattebo’s injury casting doubt on his future, Love could be in play if the Giants want to make a splash.
The Bottom Line
For the Giants and Raiders, Week 17 isn’t about pride or momentum-it’s about positioning. The loser of that game will likely walk away with the No. 1 overall pick and the keys to the 2026 NFL Draft. Whether it’s a franchise quarterback or a blue-chip defender, that pick could reshape the future of either franchise.
And while the rest of the league gears up for playoff football, these two teams are entering their own postseason of sorts-one where the stakes are just as high, even if the scoreboard doesn’t say so.