The Bills and Raiders both sprinted out to 3-0 starts, but the gap between them has only widened since. Buffalo shook off a Week 4 loss to New England by outlasting the Los Angeles Rams in overtime on Monday night in Week 5, getting big nights from Josh Allen and James Cook. At 4-1, the Bills are firmly in the AFC mix and carrying road favorite status into Week 6.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, has stumbled the other way. After falling to New England in Week 5, the Raiders are 0-2 since their perfect opening month, and their offense has started to look like the kind that can get exposed against stronger competition.
The ground game has been especially thin, sitting 30th in EPA/Rush, and that problem has lingered for a second straight season. With No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza waiting in the wings, the Raiders could be nearing a point where more losses push the conversation toward the future instead of the present.
The betting market has already nudged this matchup toward Las Vegas, even after Buffalo’s win on Monday night. The Bills opened as six-point favorites and have since settled at 5.5-point favorites, while the total has stayed at 53.5. Buffalo has looked vulnerable over the last three weeks, but it still enters this AFC matchup with the kind of offensive firepower that makes oddsmakers reluctant to stray too far from the spread.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan is backing the Bills to keep rolling, and he made the case bluntly earlier this week:
"I think I was right about the Raiders when I picked the Patriots last week. This is a team that got off to a hot start, but not one we should view as legitimate contenders. Their defense is a decent unit, but they still are one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, and since they can't run the ball, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm, which is going to work far less often than it did the first four weeks of the season.
The Raiders' offense won't be able to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I'm happy to lay the points with the spread set below the magic number of seven."
Buffalo’s case gets even stronger when you look at the numbers underneath the record. The Bills have the No. 1 offense in the NFL in EPA/Play and yards per play, and they’re fifth in success rate.
On the other side, the Raiders have a passing game that can flash - Brock Bowers and the Raiders are a top-10 team in EPA/Pass - but the lack of a credible run game leaves them predictable. That sort of one-dimensional attack is exactly what Buffalo wants to see, especially with the Bills allowing just 3.9 yards per carry in 2026.
After a softer opening stretch, Las Vegas has now dropped games to Kansas City and New England in consecutive weeks, and this one sets up as another tough ask. MacMillan expects the Bills to handle it, and his final read is straightforward: Josh Allen and Co. should win comfortably and cover in Week 6.
In Other News...
Raiders Offense Faces Growing Pressure In A Brutal Spot Against Buffalo
The Raiders head into Week 7 with plenty of offensive urgency and not much margin for error, trying to keep a losing streak from stretching to three games against a Buffalo team that rarely hands out easy answers. Las Vegas has been sorting through uneven play and injury concerns while trying to get more out of a group that includes Kirk Cousins, rookie Fernando Mendoza, Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker.
Cousins has taken the bulk of the attention because of how the offense has looked around him, but the bigger issue is getting the whole unit back on schedule before the matchup with the Bills turns into another long afternoon. Jeantys health is part of that picture, along with the need for Bowers and Tucker to be more central to what the Raiders do, and the pressure only grows from there if Las Vegas cannot find a cleaner rhythm soon. [Read more 🡒]
Maxx Crosby Draws New NFL Punishment After Raiders Loss To Patriots
The Raiders Week 5 loss to the Patriots brought another bit of fallout for one of the leagues most visible defenders. Maxx Crosby was docked by the NFL after a helmet-to-helmet hit on New England defensive tackle Cory Durden, adding a postgame cost to a frustrating afternoon for Las Vegas.
Crosbys punishment stood out around the league, too, since it was the biggest individual fine handed out in Week 5. For a Raiders team trying to steady itself after the defeat, it was another reminder that the edge Crosby plays with can come with consequences beyond the box score. [Read more 🡒]
Raiders Defense Faces Its Biggest Test Yet Against Josh Allen
The Raiders defense spent the early part of the 2026 season looking like one of the better units in the league, but the recent stretch has been a reminder of how quickly the week-to-week grind can change. After giving up high point totals to the Chiefs and Patriots, Las Vegas now turns to Buffalo, where the challenge gets much steeper against one of the NFLs most dangerous offenses.
Josh Allen and Joe Brady bring a different kind of test, the sort that forces a defense to be sharp on every snap and disciplined in every gap. Defensive coordinator Rob Leonard is sorting through his options as the Raiders try to steady things again, knowing the Bills can beat teams in a variety of ways and leave little margin for error. [Read more 🡒]