Fernando Mendoza enters the 2026 NFL Draft as the clear-cut favorite to go No. 1 overall-and it’s hard to argue with that projection. After a dream season at Indiana that included a Heisman Trophy and a national championship, Mendoza has all the momentum and pedigree you'd want in a franchise quarterback. And with the Las Vegas Raiders holding the top pick, there’s a strong sense that they’ve found their guy.
Let’s be clear: Mendoza didn’t just win-he dominated. Indiana went 16-0, and Mendoza was the engine behind it all.
He showed poise, command, and the kind of arm talent that makes NFL evaluators sit up in their chairs. Whether it was threading needles on intermediate throws or lofting deep balls with touch, Mendoza looked every bit the part of a next-level QB.
That title game win over Miami? Gritty, clutch, and emblematic of the kind of leadership teams covet.
But even with that impressive résumé, there are a couple of areas that will need refinement as he transitions to the pros.
The first centers around Mendoza’s ability to throw on the move. While he's comfortable and effective from a clean pocket, things get a little shakier when he's forced off his spot.
According to data from this past season, Mendoza completed just 53.2% of his passes when moved off his original launch point. Under true pressure, that number dipped to 50%.
That’s not catastrophic, but it does highlight a piece of his game that NFL defenses will look to exploit early. The good news?
Mendoza has solid movement skills and natural instincts. With the right coaching and system, there’s reason to believe this area can improve quickly.
The second point of development is a more technical-but important-adjustment: taking snaps under center. At Indiana, Mendoza operated almost exclusively out of the shotgun, with just 3% of his snaps coming from under center.
That’s not unusual for college QBs these days, but it does mean he'll need to get comfortable with the mechanics and timing required at the NFL level. Operating under center can be crucial for maximizing play-action effectiveness and keeping defenses honest, especially in pro-style offenses.
It’s not a red flag, but it’s something that will be on the to-do list from Day 1.
Still, when you zoom out, these are manageable concerns-typical of the jump from college to the NFL. What matters most is Mendoza’s ceiling, and that’s where things get exciting. He’s already separated himself as the top quarterback in this class, and with the right development, he has the tools to be a long-term answer at the position.
If the Raiders do indeed make him the first overall pick, they’ll be betting on a player with championship pedigree, elite arm talent, and the kind of leadership that can reshape a franchise. And based on everything we’ve seen so far, it’s a bet worth making.