Holding the No. 1 overall pick is a double-edged sword for the Las Vegas Raiders. It offers a glimmer of hope after a tough season, but it also brings immense pressure. With minority owner Tom Brady watching closely and a fan base eager for change, the 2026 NFL Draft is more than just a selection; it's a pivotal moment for the franchise.
Fernando Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, is the likely choice. But the question isn't just about his talent-it's whether he's the right fit to turn things around.
The Raiders' 2025 season was a struggle despite new faces like head coach Pete Carroll and veteran QB Geno Smith. They finished 3-14, ranking last in scoring with just 14.2 points per game. Smith faced constant pressure behind an unstable offensive line, leading to numerous turnovers.
There were some bright spots, like rookie running back Ashton Jeanty nearly hitting 1,000 rushing yards, and an emotional win against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, these moments couldn't cover up the larger issues.
With Carroll gone, John Spytek and the front office are at a crossroads. They have the No. 1 pick and a franchise in need of a fresh start.
While quarterback is a glaring need, it's not the only one. The offensive line struggled to create opportunities, and the receiver group lacks the speed to complement Brock Bowers. Defensively, trade rumors about Maxx Crosby and a vulnerable secondary highlight further challenges.
Whether the Raiders keep the pick or trade down, they need talent in the trenches and secondary. A quarterback can't succeed without protection and playmakers.
Mendoza is the headline act. The Indiana product impressed with his accuracy and poise, fitting well with Klint Kubiak’s system.
Yet, some scouts see him as "a faster Jared Goff with a slightly weaker arm"-good, but not game-changing. The real debate is whether he's elite or just solid.
The gap between Mendoza and other top quarterbacks like Ty Simpson and Dante Moore isn't seen as huge by everyone. If that's true, the Raiders might benefit from exploring other options.
Consider these scenarios:
The New York Jets, desperate for stability, sit at No. 2.
If they see Mendoza as their future, the Raiders could trade down one spot, gaining a second-round pick in 2026 and a first-round pick in 2027. This would allow Vegas to still select a top player like edge rusher David Bailey or offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa, while acquiring future assets.
Minnesota could be another trade partner. Rumors suggest the Vikings are eyeing a quarterback.
They might offer JJ McCarthy, two future first-round picks, and a starting-caliber wide receiver for the No. 1 pick. This would give the Raiders a young quarterback and more draft capital to bolster their defense.
Then there's the boldest option: trading Maxx Crosby along with the No. 1 pick for a massive haul of future first-rounders. This would fully embrace a long-term rebuild, leveraging their significant cap space to eventually build a deep, talented roster.
Quarterbacks define eras, but complete rosters win divisions. Mendoza could be the answer for Las Vegas, but if the gap between him and others isn't significant, trading down might be wiser.
Ultimately, the Raiders must weigh their options carefully. Whether it's trading down, acquiring a bridge quarterback, or going all-in on a rebuild, the decision will shape the franchise's future. If they're wrong about Mendoza, they risk losing more than just a draft pick-they risk another lost era.