The Las Vegas Raiders took a calculated swing this offseason by sending a third-round pick to Seattle for Geno Smith. At the time, it looked like a savvy move-getting a proven veteran to steady the ship.
But fast forward to December, and that bet isn’t aging well. The Raiders are sitting at 2-10, while the Seahawks, who pivoted to Sam Darnold, are rolling at 9-3 with a younger, cheaper, and-so far-more productive quarterback under center.
Now, let’s be clear: wins and losses aren’t solely a quarterback stat. Football’s too complex for that kind of simplification.
But it’s also fair to say Smith hasn’t delivered what Las Vegas hoped for. His play hasn’t elevated the offense, and with the team spiraling, the conversation has shifted from “bridge quarterback” to “who’s the next franchise guy?”
There’s no sugarcoating it-the Raiders have roster holes across the board. Offensive line, defensive depth, skill positions-you name it.
That’s led some to argue that throwing a rookie quarterback into the fire might do more harm than good. The thinking goes: build the foundation first, then drop in the quarterback when the situation’s more stable.
Maybe even wait until 2027.
But as the losses pile up and the offense continues to sputter, that wait-and-see approach is losing steam. The tide is turning, and draft analysts are starting to align on one point: it’s time for the Raiders to get aggressive in finding their quarterback of the future.
Mock drafts are already painting that picture. One scenario has Las Vegas trading all the way up to the No. 1 pick to grab Alabama’s Ty Simpson.
Another has them striking a deal to move from No. 4 to No. 2, leapfrogging the Saints to take Oregon’s Dante Moore-after Cleveland jumps up to grab Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza at No. 1.
That’s three different quarterbacks, all projected to be worthy of a top-two pick, and all linked to the Silver and Black in recent mocks. The message is clear: the Raiders can’t afford to sit back and hope their guy falls into their lap. If they believe in one of these prospects, they need to go get him.
Still, there’s understandable hesitation among fans about giving up premium draft capital. This team isn’t just a quarterback away.
But if the front office is sold on a player-truly believes he can be the face of the franchise-it’s hard to argue against making the move. Quarterback is the most important position in the sport.
If you don’t have one, you’re stuck in the mud.
There are also scenarios where the Raiders stay put and still land their guy. Multiple mock drafts, including those from NFL Mocks, USA Today, and AtoZ Sports, have Las Vegas selecting either Simpson or Moore without trading up. That would be the ideal outcome: get your quarterback without sacrificing future picks.
But the bottom line is this-status quo isn’t cutting it. The Geno Smith experiment hasn’t worked, and the string of short-term fixes at quarterback hasn’t moved the needle. The Raiders are at a crossroads, and the time to swing big might be now.
Whether it's Simpson, Moore, Mendoza, or another top prospect, the Raiders need to find their future under center. Because if there’s one thing this season has made clear, it’s that patchwork solutions at quarterback won’t get this team where it wants to go.