Raiders Eyeing No. 1 Pick as Season Spirals, Quarterback of the Future in Sight
At 2-11, the Las Vegas Raiders aren’t just playing out the string - they’re staring down a potential franchise-altering moment. The playoffs have been out of reach for weeks, but what’s still very much in play is the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. And for a team that’s been wandering through the desert for the better part of two decades, that kind of draft capital could finally be the oasis Raider Nation has been thirsting for.
Let’s be honest - this isn’t unfamiliar territory for the Silver and Black. Seasons that start with promise often end in disappointment.
But what’s been especially frustrating in recent years is that the Raiders haven’t even been bad enough to truly benefit from their struggles. Late-season wins in meaningless games have cost them prime draft real estate - a cruel twist for a team in need of foundational talent.
This year might be different.
After a Week 14 loss to the Denver Broncos, the Raiders currently sit in position to land the No. 2 overall pick. And while there are still four weeks left in the regular season, the path to the top of the draft board is suddenly wide open.
Losses to fellow basement-dwellers like the Browns and Commanders earlier this year have done more than just sting - they’ve quietly boosted Las Vegas’ draft positioning. And with only one remaining game that looks remotely winnable (Week 17 vs. the Giants), the Raiders are, for once, in control of their own destiny - at least when it comes to the draft.
The Dream Scenario Is in Play
According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the Raiders have a 38% chance of landing the top pick - the best odds in the league, ahead of the Titans at 23.7%. The Athletic’s model is even more bullish, giving Las Vegas a 44% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, with the Titans trailing at 21%. Sunday’s results in Week 14 - particularly Tennessee’s win over Cleveland - tilted the odds further in the Raiders’ favor.
That’s significant, because this year’s draft class has a potential QB1 that’s turning heads: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. After leading the Hoosiers to a Big Ten title over Ohio State and locking up the top seed in the College Football Playoff, Mendoza has become the name to watch. Scouts have been high on him all season, and while draft boards are still fluid, Mendoza is making a strong case to be the first quarterback off the board.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano put it bluntly in his weekly column: the idea of Mendoza being the Raiders’ quarterback next season is not an overreaction.
And it’s not hard to see why.
The Geno Smith Era Looks Like a One-Year Experiment
Geno Smith’s stint in Las Vegas hasn’t gone according to plan. Injuries and inconsistency have derailed what was already a shaky situation.
While Smith is under contract for next season with $18.5 million guaranteed, that doesn’t mean he’s locked in as the starter. If the Raiders find themselves in position to draft a quarterback they believe can be the long-term answer, Smith could be relegated to a backup role - or moved on from entirely.
The team may also be headed for another coaching reset in 2026, adding to the sense that a full-blown rebuild is on the horizon. That’s not unfamiliar territory for this franchise, but this time, the pieces might finally be aligning to do it right - starting with a high-end quarterback prospect and a fresh start under center.
But It’s Not Just About the No. 1 Pick
Even if the Raiders don’t end up with the top selection, they’re still in a strong position. If the Titans or Giants finish ahead of them in the draft order - and both teams just drafted quarterbacks this past April - Las Vegas could still get their guy at No. 2 or even No.
- The real threat could come from a team with multiple first-round picks, like the Browns, Jets, or Rams, trading up to jump the Raiders for a quarterback.
That’s why every loss from here on out matters - not just for draft order, but for keeping control of their own fate. The last thing the Raiders want is to be leapfrogged by a team with more draft capital and a clearer vision.
Hope Is a Dangerous Thing - But It’s Alive in Vegas
For a fan base that’s been through more heartbreak than most, the idea of landing a franchise quarterback is the kind of hope that keeps people tuning in. It’s the dream. And right now, it’s alive.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed. A few late-season wins - the kind that have haunted this franchise before - could derail the whole plan. And if the Raiders go on a mini-run to close out the year, it would be a fittingly bittersweet ending to another lost season.
But for now, the stars are aligning. The losses are piling up.
The draft board is tilting in their favor. And the quarterback of the future might just be waiting.
The Raiders don’t need a miracle. They just need to stay the course - and maybe, just maybe, this time the pain leads to progress.