Jon Gruden has weighed in on the 2026 AFC West, and his answer for the Las Vegas Raiders is simple: fourth place.
That verdict may not shock anyone, but it does underline how little room the Raiders have to impress on paper right now. Gruden’s read on the division puts Denver first, with the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs filling out the top three. In his view, the Raiders are the team left trying to make progress without actually moving up the ladder.
The Broncos are the easy part of the prediction to understand. Sean Payton has continuity, Bo Nix is looking like an actual quarterback, and Denver is adding Jaylen Waddle on top of that. The picture there is of a team already rolling and then getting another jolt of speed.
For Las Vegas, the story is different. The Raiders are being asked to improve while still sitting behind the rest of the division, which makes their path feel more like treading water than climbing. That’s the reality of a rebuilding year: movement is supposed to happen, but the standings don’t always cooperate.
The more interesting tension in Vegas, though, has less to do with Gruden’s ranking and more to do with the quarterback situation. Aidan O’Connell is in the middle of a three-man room that includes the incumbent, the accomplished veteran, and the rookie who went first overall. It leaves O’Connell in a tough spot, trying to prove himself against a quarterback who ran a Super Bowl offense and a young player who has yet to take an NFL hit.
Even so, that competition gives the Raiders something worth watching. O’Connell is not just fighting for a role in camp; he’s auditioning for his future in real time. If he plays well enough, the conversation could shift quickly, even to the point of a trade before the ink dries on Kirk Cousins’ locker nameplate.
So while Gruden’s pick of Denver may be the headline, the more compelling question in Las Vegas is whether O’Connell can turn this summer into something bigger than a backup battle. The division race may feel settled to Gruden, but the Raiders still have a storyline worth following.
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