Football is back, and Week 1 Survivor pools are already forcing players to make a call earlier than usual. With the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks kicking off the 2026 season on Wednesday, entries have to be in sooner, and the SI Betting team is once again lining up its favorite picks.
The biggest favorite on the board is the Los Angeles Chargers, who enter as a double-digit favorite against the Arizona Cardinals. That makes them an obvious name to circle, and there’s also a broader Survivor angle with Los Angeles this season because of a second-place schedule and later matchups with Las Vegas twice and Miami.
Still, the team drawing the strongest case here is the Jacksonville Jaguars. After finishing 13-4 in 2025, Jacksonville opens with a tough first-place schedule that includes seven games against playoff teams from last season. That makes Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns one of the cleaner spots to use them, along with their two games against the Tennessee Titans later in the year.
Jacksonville is laying 8.5 points in this one, and that number moved after Deshaun Watson was named Cleveland’s starter. Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, said, “The only one we saw somewhat significant move was Jags-Browns,” Ty Gour Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated.
“That moved from 7.5 to 8.5, and that seemed to happen in tune with the news that Deshaun Watson is going to be the QB1. And then his subsequent preseason performance.”
Watson’s Cleveland run has been rough. He has won just nine of his 19 starts while throwing 12 interceptions, and the Browns were 1-6 in the 2024 season when he started.
The Jaguars also get a boost from the Browns’ defense taking a hit with the loss of Myles Garrett. Cleveland was fourth in the league in EPA/Play last season, and while Jared Verse is described as a strong replacement, Garrett’s production was on another level. He set the sack record and was an absolute game-wrecker.
If Cleveland’s defense slips, the path for Watson to go into Jacksonville and steal a road win looks shaky. The Browns were 2-6 against the spread on the road last season, while the Jaguars covered in seven of their nine home games.
Peter Dewey still sees some regression risk after Jacksonville’s 13-4 season, but he likes them to win outright in Week 1.
Iain MacMillan is taking a different kind of swing, saying a bad team in Week 1 can pay off if it gets you ahead of the field right away. He also points to the Miami Dolphins as a team worth fading throughout the season, calling their roster “arguably the worst in the NFL after stripping it to its bones this past offseason.”
For his Survivor play, MacMillan is looking at the Las Vegas Raiders. He notes they’re not a playoff team, but says they’re a couple of years into their rebuild and have legitimate pieces like Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers.
He also says, “Kirk Cousins is past his prime, but he’s more than a serviceable quarterback for this Week 1 game. Let’s take a chance on the Raiders taking care of business in Week 1.”
In Other News...
Klint Kubiaks Demanding Style Is Already Shaping The Raiders Biggest Decisions
Klint Kubiak has only just settled into the Raiders head-coaching role, but his fingerprints are already showing up in the biggest decisions around the building. General manager John Spytek has praised Kubiaks disciplined, efficient way of communicating, and that approach fits the tone Las Vegas is trying to set as it prepares for a new era under a coach who does not waste words or time.
It is already evident in the quarterback plan. Kubiak has chosen Kirk Cousins to start Week 1 against the Dolphins over first overall pick Fernando Mendoza, a decision that underscores how carefully the Raiders want to bring the rookie along. Mendoza remains central to the long-term picture, but the team plans to develop him patiently, with Kubiak also pointing to the value of Tom Bradys guidance in shaping the roster and the organizations approach to building around it. [Read more 🡒]
Raiders Suddenly Have A Clear Veteran Receiver Option To Consider
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Slayton also comes with the sort of questions that usually follow a player changing teams this late in the process, which is why the fit is being weighed carefully rather than rushed into. The Raiders are reportedly considering the move, but nothing has been finalized, leaving this as one of those roster situations worth watching closely as they sort through whether the upside outweighs the risk. [Read more 🡒]
Raiders Make Late Practice Squad Moves Ahead Of Week 1
The Raiders kept tinkering with the bottom of the roster as Week 1 approached, making another set of practice squad moves to shore up a few spots after cutdown day. Las Vegas added rookie nose tackle Tim Keenan III and fullback Patrick Gurd, while parting ways with defensive tackle Gary Smith III and safety Devin Lafayette, a reminder that even after the initial 53-man decisions, the back end of the roster is still very much a work in progress.
Keenan, a seventh-round pick of the Rams, brings some flexibility because he has played multiple spots along the defensive line, even if his preseason production did not jump off the page. Gurd is a familiar face in the building after spending the spring and summer with the Raiders while competing for the fullback job, and his return gives the team another look at a role they kept evaluating throughout the offseason. [Read more 🡒]